Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on June 1?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced through outcome shares representing different temperature ranges or specific degree thresholds for Buenos Aires on June 1. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to their belief in each outcome, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. Share prices range from 0 to 1 cent, where higher prices indicate greater confidence in that outcome. Volume and liquidity vary across temperature brackets, influencing how easily traders can enter or exit positions at any given time.

The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the highest temperature in Buenos Aires on June 1 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official meteorological data from recognized weather authorities monitoring Buenos Aires. The outcome is determined by the peak temperature reading captured during that calendar day, typically measured at a standard weather station. Once the official figure is confirmed, the market settles to the corresponding outcome share, and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Major atmospheric systems approaching South America—including cold fronts, high-pressure ridges, or tropical moisture intrusions—could significantly shift market odds. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies may reveal stronger-than-normal or weaker-than-normal temperature patterns for early June. Real-time weather model runs in late May will provide increasingly precise guidance, causing traders to adjust positions. Local climate anomalies, ocean temperature variations in the South Atlantic, and shifts in the Southern Annular Mode can all influence Buenos Aires' temperature trajectory and move market prices closer to resolution.