TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 1:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Boston's maximum temperature will fall within the 70-71° Fahrenheit range on May 28, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 97.0%, while the 72-73° range outcome stands at 3.0%. Resolution will be determined by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for that date. Watch the actual temperature reading recorded by the National Weather Service on May 28, 2026, as it will directly determine which outcome resolves to Yes.
The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the maximum temperature for May 28, 2026 in Boston has been recorded. Resolution depends on the official high temperature reported for that day, which is compared against the 68-degree threshold specified in the contract. The outcome is binary: either the high temperature falls below 68 degrees, or it does not. Traders should monitor weather forecasts and actual conditions as the date approaches to inform their trading decisions before the market closes.
Several factors could shift odds for this Boston temperature event. Major weather pattern changes, such as the approach of a cold front or high-pressure system, would alter forecaster expectations and trader sentiment. Updated seasonal climate outlooks and atmospheric indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation may signal cooler or warmer conditions for late May. Real-time weather model runs issued in the days leading up to May 28 will provide increasingly precise forecasts, driving price adjustments. Additionally, any unusual climate anomalies or jet stream configurations could surprise the market and trigger significant trading volume.