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Highest temperature in Beijing on May 31?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Beijing on May 31?

Volume:
$97,492

33°C

 - Polymarket

33°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 31, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

33°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,184
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,706
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,282
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

42°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

41°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on meteorological models and historical climate data. While weather analysts use seasonal patterns and atmospheric science to project May temperatures in Beijing, prediction markets incorporate trader sentiment and current information flow. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios than official forecasts, offering insight into how different information sources weight the likelihood of specific temperature outcomes.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the highest temperature in Beijing on May 31 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date, typically sourced from recognized meteorological authorities. The outcome is binary or range-based depending on the specific contract structure, with the winning outcome determined by which temperature threshold or bracket the actual recorded high falls into. Once resolved, traders receive payouts based on their position in the winning outcome.

Several factors could shift market odds before resolution. Seasonal weather pattern updates, long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies, and historical temperature anomalies for late May in Beijing all influence trader expectations. Major climate events, shifts in atmospheric pressure systems, or unusual warming trends in the region could trigger significant price movements. Additionally, as May 31 approaches, real-time weather forecasts become more precise, typically causing the market to converge toward the actual expected temperature. Traders continuously reassess probabilities based on evolving meteorological data.