Highest temperature in Beijing on June 5?

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Beijing on June 5 is priced through a binary outcome: whether the high will reach 33°C or above. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no positions, with the price reflecting the collective probability. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, and real-time forecasts emerge, the market reprices continuously. The current odds reflect trader conviction about heat intensity in early June, balancing historical Beijing temperature patterns against any anomalies signaled by meteorological models.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official highest temperature recorded in Beijing on June 5. The outcome depends on whether that recorded high meets or exceeds the threshold specified in the market outcome. Official meteorological data from recognized weather stations in Beijing will be used to settle the contract. Traders should monitor official sources and weather station reports as the date approaches to understand how the resolution criteria will be applied.

Major signals include updated seasonal weather forecasts, atmospheric circulation patterns, and any anomalies in spring temperatures leading into June. El Niño or La Niña conditions, monsoon onset timing, and upper-air pressure systems over East Asia can all influence Beijing's early-June heat. Real-time forecast updates from meteorological agencies typically narrow uncertainty as June 5 approaches. Urban heat island effects and any unusual pollution or cloud cover events could also shift trader expectations about the final recorded high temperature on that specific date.