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Highest temperature in Beijing on June 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Beijing on June 12?

Volume:
$141,070

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,973
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,311
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,474
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and can be compared against meteorological forecasts and climate analyst models. While prediction markets aggregate distributed trader beliefs, professional weather forecasters use physics-based models and historical climate data. Divergences between market odds and analyst consensus may signal either market inefficiency or uncertainty in the underlying forecast. Tracking both sources helps identify when markets are pricing in tail risks or overlooking consensus views on Beijing's June temperature patterns.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026 following the close of trading. Resolution is determined by the highest temperature officially recorded in Beijing on June 12. The outcome depends on which temperature bracket or specific threshold the actual daily high falls into, as defined by the market's outcome categories. Once the official temperature data is published by the relevant meteorological authority, the winning outcome is confirmed and traders' positions settle accordingly.

Several factors could shift market odds before resolution. Major weather pattern changes, such as shifts in monsoon timing or unexpected high-pressure systems, would alter temperature expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time weather model runs in the days leading up to June 12 typically drive repricing. Urban heat island effects, pollution levels, and anomalous atmospheric conditions could also influence actual temperatures. As the event date approaches, increasingly accurate short-range forecasts will narrow uncertainty and concentrate odds around the most likely outcome.