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Highest temperature in Beijing on June 10?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Beijing on June 10?

Volume:
$103,016

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 10, 2026

Closed: Jun 10, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$22,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,732
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts issued by China's national weather service or international agencies. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature predictions based on atmospheric models, prediction markets price in uncertainty, historical forecast error, and real-time information flow. Comparing Polymarket odds to official Beijing weather forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in higher or lower temperatures than consensus models suggest, offering an alternative view of likely outcomes by June 10.

The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the highest temperature recorded in Beijing on June 10 is officially reported. The outcome is determined by the maximum temperature reading for that calendar day, typically sourced from Beijing's meteorological authority or recognized weather station data. Once the official high temperature is confirmed and published, the corresponding outcome contract is marked correct, and all other contracts resolve to zero. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout based on the final price.

Several factors can shift odds for Beijing's June 10 high temperature. Major weather pattern changes—such as the arrival of cold fronts, monsoon systems, or heat waves—will trigger repricing as updated forecasts become available. Seasonal climate anomalies, including El Niño or La Niña effects, influence regional temperatures weeks in advance. Real-time atmospheric data releases and model consensus updates typically move markets significantly. Historical temperature records for that date and recent Beijing heat trends also inform trader positioning. As June 10 approaches, short-range forecasts become more precise, often causing sharper odds adjustments in the final days before resolution.