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Highest temperature in Beijing on July 7?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Beijing on July 7?

Volume:
$119,431

33°C

 - Polymarket

33°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

33°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,088
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,758
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,706
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds and traditional weather analyst forecasts often diverge because they measure different things. Meteorologists issue probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric models and historical data, while this market aggregates the beliefs of traders with real money at stake. Traders may incorporate local knowledge, recent weather patterns, or contrarian views that differ from official forecasts. Comparing the implied probability from market odds to published analyst confidence intervals can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to expert consensus on Beijing's July 7 high temperature.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that sets odds based on the ratio of shares bought and sold for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing "yes" or "no" positions on whether the highest temperature will be 32°C, and the price of each share fluctuates as new trades arrive. The current implied probability reflects the marginal trader's willingness to buy or sell at that price. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how quickly prices adjust to new information about Beijing's weather forecast.

This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once July 7 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Beijing is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verified data from credible public sources reporting the actual peak temperature on that date. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a day after the event, once the temperature reading is finalized and available for verification.

Several factors could shift odds in this market before Jul 7, 2026. Updated weather models and seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as traders adjust their expectations. Major weather systems, heat waves, or anomalous atmospheric patterns reported in the media can spark rapid trading. News about Beijing's air quality, urban heat island effects, or climate patterns may also influence trader sentiment. As July 7 approaches, each new forecast update or real-time weather data release typically prompts fresh trading activity and price movement.