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Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Volume:
$153,009

34°C

 - Polymarket

34°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,066
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,061
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,631
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Beijing temperature prediction market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movement for the highest temperature expected in Beijing on July 5. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, with the current odds reflecting the collective forecast of market participants. The dashboard displays 24-hour trading volume of $107,199, cumulative volume of $152,659, and live bid-ask spreads so you can monitor how sentiment shifts as new weather data emerges.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than relying on a single meteorological model. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric data, this market prices in broader uncertainty and reflects how traders weight competing scenarios. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts from weather services can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk—for instance, if traders assign higher odds to extreme heat than meteorologists predict.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—representing a specific temperature band—has its own share price between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability that outcome occurs. As traders accumulate positions ahead of July 5, the market depth and spreads tighten, making it easier to execute larger trades with minimal slippage.

This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Beijing on July 5 is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the final official reading to the predefined temperature ranges offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can significantly move this market. Tropical systems, heat domes, or unexpected cold fronts tracked by meteorological agencies will prompt traders to reposition. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies for early July in Beijing and any climate alerts issued by Chinese weather authorities may trigger sharp repricing. As July 5 approaches, intraday weather updates and satellite imagery become the primary catalysts for volatility.