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Highest temperature in Beijing on July 3?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Beijing on July 3?

Volume:
$122,347

35°C

 - Polymarket

35°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

35°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,824
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,452
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,765
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,074
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and financial incentives. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants betting actual capital on outcomes. Traders may price in tail risks or consensus shifts faster than official forecasts update. Comparing the current odds here to published analyst predictions for Beijing's July 3 high can reveal where the market sees asymmetric opportunities or where conventional forecasts may be underweighting certain scenarios.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Beijing on July 3 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual daily high against the temperature thresholds embedded in each contract. Traders who correctly predicted the range or exact threshold win their positions, while incorrect predictions expire worthless. Resolution is automatic once the official temperature data is confirmed and published.

Weather pattern shifts, updated meteorological forecasts, and seasonal climate anomalies can all drive significant price swings in this market. Major atmospheric systems moving into or away from Beijing, changes in air quality that affect temperature readings, or unexpected heat waves could trigger rapid repricing. Real-time weather alerts and model updates from major forecasting agencies often prompt traders to adjust positions. Additionally, historical temperature records and comparisons to prior July 3 highs may influence sentiment as the date approaches, causing volatility in odds across all temperature outcome buckets.