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Highest temperature in Austin on June 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Austin on June 27?

Volume:
$117,016

94° to 95°

 - Kalshi

94° to 95° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

94° to 95°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,909
N/A
N/A
$5,541
Settled
Yes
polymarket

94-95°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

91°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

96° to 97°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,364
N/A
N/A
$14,610
Settled
No
kalshi

93° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,119
N/A
N/A
$11,500
Settled
No
polymarket

92-93°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

100° to 101°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,421
N/A
N/A
$6,371
Settled
No
polymarket

96-97°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,333
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,523
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

104-105°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

98° to 99°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,764
N/A
N/A
$2,030
Settled
No
polymarket

102-103°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

102° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,573
N/A
N/A
$1,572
Settled
No
polymarket

110°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

108-109°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

106-107°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Austin on June 27, 2026, measured at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Kalshi and Polymarket both seek to resolve based on the official recorded high temperature for that date, but they differ significantly in their source documents, date references, and resolution structure.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references the wrong date (June 26, 2026 instead of June 27, 2026) and contains a logical contradiction where all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket correctly references June 27, 2026 with mutually exclusive temperature buckets and a valid resolution source.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is fundamentally broken due to the date error and logical flaw. Polymarket's market is tradeable. If you hold Kalshi positions, escalate to the platform immediately for clarification or cancellation. Trade only Polymarket if you must participate in this event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six resolution conditions reference June 26, 2026 (not June 27) and every single outcome—regardless of temperature range—resolves to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where no outcome can differentiate. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). Key quote: 'If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for June 26, 2026... is [any range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Thirteen mutually exclusive temperature buckets (91°F or below, 92-93°F, 94-95°F, etc., up to 110°F or higher) for June 27, 2026. Resolution source is Wunderground historical data for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Market cannot resolve until first data point for June 28 is published. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Austin Bergstrom on June 26, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is categorized into six bands: 93°F or below, 94–95°F, 96–97°F, 98–99°F, 100–101°F, and 102°F or above. Each band resolves to its corresponding outcome. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source; preliminary NWS data and alternative weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations and should not be used as final reference. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect real-money incentives for accuracy, often diverging from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate broader information sets and personal conviction. While meteorologists issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, this market lets participants express probabilistic views with direct financial stakes. The gap between market odds and official forecasts can signal either market skepticism of model outputs or early detection of emerging conditions that models have not yet fully captured. Comparing the two reveals where collective trader judgment and institutional forecasting align or diverge.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market designs, fee structures, and trader bases, which naturally produces price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulated framework and order-book mechanics may attract institutional participants focused on specific temperature thresholds, while Polymarket's broader retail audience and AMM-style pricing can reflect different risk appetites. Liquidity depth, regional trader concentration, and platform-specific incentives also shape how each venue prices the same underlying event. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms typically narrow these gaps, but temporary spreads persist as traders react to new information at different speeds.

Updated weather models, tropical system forecasts, and atmospheric pressure patterns are primary catalysts that shift trader positioning. Major weather alerts or heat advisories issued by the National Weather Service can trigger sharp repricing as new information reaches the market. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to June 27 allow traders to refine their bets based on actual conditions rather than forecasts alone. Additionally, any significant changes to Austin's local conditions—such as unusual cloud cover, wind patterns, or urban heat island effects—may prompt traders to adjust their exposure before the market closes.