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Highest temperature in Austin on July 3?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Austin on July 3?

Volume:
$92,094

95° to 96°

 - Kalshi

95° to 96° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 1:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

95° to 96°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,226
N/A
N/A
$9,329
Settled
Yes
polymarket

96-97°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

97° to 98°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,515
N/A
N/A
$8,532
Settled
No
kalshi

93° to 94°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,342
N/A
N/A
$8,164
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,803
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92-93°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,353
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

104-105°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

89°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,322
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

101° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,263
N/A
N/A
$2,314
Settled
No
kalshi

99° to 100°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,067
N/A
N/A
$1,710
Settled
No
polymarket

106-107°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,607
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

102-103°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

92° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,657
N/A
N/A
$1,386
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

108°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Austin on July 3, 2026, measured at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Kalshi uses a binary Yes/No structure covering all temperature ranges, while Polymarket uses a categorical range-matching approach. Both reference the same location and date but employ fundamentally different market structures and resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi specifies July 02, 2026 while the event group title and Polymarket specify July 3, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi's binary Yes/No structure with six overlapping temperature conditions all resolving to Yes creates logical contradiction and unresolvability. Polymarket uses a well-defined categorical structure with mutually exclusive ranges.Hero tip: This divergence is critical and unresolvable as currently specified. Immediately contact both platforms to confirm the correct event date. Kalshi's market structure appears malformed—all six conditions resolve to Yes regardless of temperature, making it impossible to determine a single outcome. If forced to choose, treat Polymarket as the authoritative source due to its clear categorical logic and explicit resolution source (Wunderground). Do not execute cross-platform trades until this is clarified.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market referencing July 02, 2026 (not July 3). Six conditions provided, all resolving to Yes: <93°, 93-94°, 95-96°, 97-98°, 99-100°, >100°. This covers all possible temperatures, making the market logically incoherent. Key Quote: 'If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 02, 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated for all six conditions)
  • Polymarket: Categorical range-matching market referencing July 3, 2026. Thirteen mutually exclusive temperature buckets from 89°F or below to 108°F or higher. Resolves to the single range containing the actual high temperature. Resolution source: Wunderground historical data for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Austin Bergstrom on July 02, 2026, as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official NWS report serves as the authoritative source; preliminary data from other weather services may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations. Traders should rely on the final NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for accurate resolution, as preliminary NWS reporting may contain nuances in conversion and rounding that affect the final determination.

Frequently asked questions

The Austin temperature record market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on the highest temperature in Austin for July 3. Traders on each platform submit bets on specific temperature thresholds, and the collective odds reflect market conviction about whether conditions will be cooler or hotter than historical norms. This cross-platform view reveals where consensus is strongest and where disagreement persists, helping participants gauge confidence in competing outcomes.

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical patterns, and tail-risk scenarios that meteorologists may weight differently. While weather services issue point forecasts and confidence intervals, this market distills trader beliefs into binary or range-based odds, reflecting asymmetric payoffs and individual conviction. Markets tend to update faster than official forecasts when new atmospheric data arrives, making them a complementary signal for tracking shifting expectations around extreme heat.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps on the same underlying event. Kalshi and Polymarket also frame temperature outcomes differently—one may emphasize a narrow band while the other uses broader thresholds—leading traders to hedge or speculate along different margins. Arbitrage opportunities between the two venues can persist if transaction costs or withdrawal friction outweigh the profit from closing the spread.

Major atmospheric shifts—such as an approaching cold front, tropical system, or high-pressure dome—can trigger sharp repricing as traders update their heat expectations. Extended-range weather models released in the days before July 3 often spark volatility, especially if they contradict prior consensus. Real-time observations of upper-level patterns, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects also influence positioning. News of equipment failures at weather stations or data delays can create temporary uncertainty and trading opportunities.