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Highest temperature in Atlanta on June 27?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Atlanta on June 27?

Volume:
$104,478

92-93°F

 - Polymarket

92-93°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

92-93°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

91° to 92°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,460
N/A
N/A
$4,062
Settled
Yes
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

89° to 90°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,510
N/A
N/A
$7,702
Settled
No
kalshi

87° to 88°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,702
N/A
N/A
$6,100
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

93° to 94°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,020
N/A
N/A
$2,756
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,476
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

95° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,996
N/A
N/A
$1,979
Settled
No
polymarket

96-97°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

86° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,633
N/A
N/A
$1,349
Settled
No
polymarket

81°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,041
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

These markets predict the highest temperature recorded in Atlanta on June 27, 2026. Kalshi uses a yes/no binary structure covering all temperature ranges, while Polymarket uses a categorical range-selection format. Both reference official weather data but from different sources and measurement stations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction (all temperature ranges resolve YES with no NO condition defined) and references Jun 26 instead of Jun 27. Polymarket and Kalshi also use different data sources (Wunderground KATL vs NWS Climatological Report) and measurement stations, creating source fragility.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi until the date discrepancy and logical contradiction are clarified with the platform. Polymarket's categorical structure is internally consistent and should be treated as the authoritative market. Confirm with Kalshi whether the Jun 26 reference is a typo and whether their YES conditions are mutually exclusive.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary yes/no structure with six conditions all resolving to YES: less than 87°F, 87-88°F, 89-90°F, 91-92°F, 93-94°F, and greater than 94°F. This covers all possible temperatures with no defined NO outcome. References National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for Jun 26, 2026 (not Jun 27). Quote: 'If the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta for Jun 26, 2026, is less than 87° fahrenheit...then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta for Jun 26, 2026, is greater than 94° fahrenheit...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical range-selection format with 11 mutually exclusive temperature buckets for Jun 27, 2026. Market resolves to the single range containing the highest temperature at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station (KATL) per Wunderground historical data, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26' with resolution source 'Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta on June 26, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is the NWS Southeast Regional Headquarters climate portal (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=ffc), accessed via the "Observed Weather" tab with location set to "Atlanta, GA" and Daily Climate Report selected. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range: 86°F or below, 87-88°F, 89-90°F, 91-92°F, 93-94°F, or 95°F and above. Traders should note that preliminary NWS reporting may contain rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the definitive source for resolution, superseding preliminary data or alternative weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices and meteorological forecasts often diverge because they measure different things. Weather models from the National Weather Service project conditions based on atmospheric physics, while traders in this market price outcomes based on collective belief and risk appetite. Markets can overshoot or undershoot official forecasts due to sentiment, recent volatility, or asymmetric information among participants. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in tail risks that models underweight, or conversely, whether they're anchored to outdated consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi may quote different odds on the same temperature outcome due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which influence how prices discover. Polymarket may have deeper order books on certain thresholds, while Kalshi participants might hold stronger convictions on alternative ranges. Arbitrage opportunities between the two platforms can persist if transaction costs or regulatory constraints limit cross-platform trading, allowing temporary price gaps to survive.

Major weather pattern shifts—such as a cold front, high-pressure system, or tropical system development—can dramatically reprrice this market. Updated National Weather Service forecasts, especially significant revisions to the high-temperature outlook, often trigger sharp trader repositioning. Seasonal anomalies, urban heat island effects, or unexpected atmospheric blocking patterns may also influence prices. Real-time satellite imagery, model consensus changes, and historical temperature comparisons for the date will drive incremental adjustments as June 27 approaches.