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Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 2?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 2?

Volume:
$96,127

95° to 96°

 - Kalshi

95° to 96° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

95° to 96°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,825
N/A
N/A
$5,693
Settled
Yes
polymarket

98-99°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

92° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,990
N/A
N/A
$8,792
Settled
No
kalshi

93° to 94°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,880
N/A
N/A
$7,601
Settled
No
kalshi

97° to 98°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,271
N/A
N/A
$4,058
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

96-97°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92-93°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

108°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

99° to 100°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,962
N/A
N/A
$3,617
Settled
No
polymarket

106-107°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,544
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

104-105°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

102-103°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

101° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,470
N/A
N/A
$1,440
Settled
No
polymarket

89°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature in Atlanta will be on July 2, 2026. Kalshi's market resolves to Yes for essentially all temperature outcomes (below 93°F through above 100°F), while Polymarket offers granular temperature range buckets (89°F or below, 90-91°F, 92-93°F, etc., up to 108°F or higher). The core question is identical, but the resolution structures and sources differ significantly.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is a tautology (all conditions resolve Yes), references the wrong date (July 1 instead of July 2), and lacks granularity. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive temperature ranges with a clear, verifiable source (Wunderground KATL station). The markets are logically incompatible.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is unresolvable as written due to logical contradiction. Trade only on Polymarket, which has well-defined temperature buckets and a published data source (Wunderground). Verify the event date is July 2, 2026, and confirm KATL station data is the official resolution source before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six conditions resolve to Yes across the entire temperature spectrum (below 93°F through above 100°F), creating a logical tautology. Additionally, the rules reference July 1, 2026, not July 2, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta for Jul 1, 2026, is [any range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Thirteen mutually exclusive temperature range buckets (89°F or below, 90-91°F, 92-93°F, 94-95°F, 96-97°F, 98-99°F, 100-101°F, 102-103°F, 104-105°F, 106-107°F, 108°F or higher) with single resolution source: Wunderground historical data for Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station (KATL) on July 2, 2026, measured to whole-degree Fahrenheit precision. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta on July 1, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessible via the NWS Atlanta office website under Observed Weather for Atlanta, GA. The event resolves to the temperature range bracket that contains the official NWS reading: 92°F or below, 93-94°F, 95-96°F, 97-98°F, 99-100°F, or 101°F and above. Traders should rely exclusively on the official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) as the final authoritative source, as preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services may contain rounding or conversion differences. The latest version of NWS data for the specified date should be used, accounting for varying update frequencies across reporting periods.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracking Atlanta's July 2 temperature often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical patterns, and their own risk assessments. While weather services issue probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric models, market prices reflect collective belief weighted by financial incentive. Traders may price in tail risks or consensus shifts faster than official updates. Comparing this market's odds to the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies can reveal where traders see edge or disagreement. Both sources are valuable: forecasters offer scientific depth, while markets aggregate distributed knowledge and conviction.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds on the same temperature outcome due to contract design, liquidity distribution, and trader composition. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket structures its contracts around binary thresholds (for example, whether the high exceeds 100°F), while Kalshi offers granular bands (such as 106–107°F ranges), creating distinct pricing incentives. Liquidity pools vary by platform, so large trades move prices differently. Regional trader preferences and platform-specific fee structures also influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. Savvy traders monitor both venues to spot arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which platform's participants hold stronger conviction.

Weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data will drive price movement in this market. Major weather system developments—such as a cold front or high-pressure dome—can significantly alter expectations for July 2 temperatures. Historical heat waves, climate anomalies, or unusual jet-stream positioning may also influence trader positioning. News of equipment failures at weather stations or data revisions could trigger repricing. As July 2 approaches, intraday forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of likely outcomes and concentrating trading volume around the most probable temperature bands. Traders often increase activity in the final days as uncertainty decreases and conviction hardens.