TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Ankara on May 30, 2026 will fall within specific degree ranges. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a high of 18°C—stands at 37.0%, while a high of 17°C carries 32.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by Weather Underground's historical data from Esenboğa International Airport Station. Watch for late-May weather pattern forecasts as May 30, 2026 approaches to gauge whether seasonal warming will push temperatures toward the 18°C threshold or remain closer to 17°C.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket represent crowdsourced expectations from active traders, while meteorological analyst forecasts rely on numerical weather models and expert interpretation. Analyst predictions for Ankara's May 30 high temperature typically incorporate seasonal patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and historical climate data. Market odds may diverge from analyst consensus if traders have access to different information or assign different probabilities to weather scenarios. Comparing the two approaches provides perspective: markets aggregate distributed knowledge, while analysts offer specialized technical forecasting. Both sources can inform your view of the likely temperature range.
The Highest temperature in Ankara on May 30 market resolves on May 30, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual highest temperature recorded in Ankara on May 30, 2026. Official meteorological data from a designated weather station or national weather service serves as the source of truth for settlement. Once the day concludes and the final temperature is confirmed, the market will settle to the outcome that matches the recorded high. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Several factors could shift market odds for Ankara's May 30 high temperature. Updated seasonal weather forecasts from meteorological agencies may reveal changing atmospheric conditions or jet stream patterns. Major weather systems—heat waves, cold fronts, or monsoon activity—could alter expectations weeks in advance. Real-time May weather data as the date approaches will refine trader estimates. Climate anomalies or unusual pressure systems over the Mediterranean or Central Asia may influence Ankara's conditions. News of volcanic activity, solar cycles, or other atmospheric events could also move prices. As May 30 draws closer, short-term forecasts become more reliable, typically narrowing the range of expected temperatures and sharpening market pricing.