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Highest temperature in Ankara on July 4?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Ankara on July 4?

Volume:
$92,681

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,008
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,728
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,369
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Ankara temperature record market dashboard displays real-time odds, historical price movements, and trading activity for this event. The 24-hour volume of $48,570 reflects recent trader interest in whether the highest temperature in Ankara will reach specific thresholds on July 4. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing you to monitor how market participants are pricing the likelihood of different temperature outcomes throughout the day.

Prediction market odds aggregate the collective judgment of traders betting real money on outcomes, often diverging from traditional weather forecasts. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, this market reflects traders' willingness to stake capital on specific temperature ranges. Both sources have merit: analysts excel at physics-based modeling, while markets capture real-time information flows and tail-risk pricing. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus breaks down or where one approach underweights emerging signals.

This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Ankara on July 4 is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual maximum temperature observed that day, measured in degrees Celsius. Resolution occurs after the event concludes and official data becomes available, ensuring all traders have access to the same factual basis for settlement.

Several factors could shift trader positioning before Jul 4, 2026. Updated seasonal climate forecasts, El Niño or La Niña developments, and historical temperature anomalies for early July in Turkey all influence expectations. Real-time weather model runs in the days leading up to July 4 typically trigger the largest repricing. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as heat waves across the Eastern Mediterranean or unexpected cold fronts—could prompt rapid adjustments. Traders also monitor long-range ensemble forecasts and regional climate indices that correlate with summer temperatures in Ankara.