Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 4?

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 4 is priced through outcome tokens representing discrete temperature ranges or specific thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell these tokens, with prices reflecting the implied probability of each outcome occurring. The order book shows bid-ask spreads, and prices adjust as new information arrives or trading volume shifts. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome; more heavily traded ranges typically show tighter pricing, while extreme temperatures may have wider gaps between buy and sell prices.

The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, after the highest temperature recorded in Amsterdam on June 4 is finalized. Resolution is determined by official meteorological data from the designated weather authority or data source specified in the market terms. Once the final temperature is confirmed, the outcome token corresponding to that result is marked as correct, and all other tokens expire worthless. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout based on the odds at which they entered their position.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can significantly move odds. Tropical air masses, high-pressure systems, or unusual jet stream positioning in early June could drive expectations toward higher temperatures. Conversely, cooler Atlantic systems or cloud cover could lower implied probabilities. As June 4 approaches, daily weather models become more precise, typically narrowing uncertainty and sharpening market pricing. Historical temperature records for that date and time-of-year climate normals also anchor trader expectations and can trigger repricing if new forecasts deviate substantially.