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Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 1?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 1?

Volume:
$58,741

22°C

 - Polymarket

22°C - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 2, 2026

Closed: Jun 1, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

22°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,515
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$858
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$677
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$296
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide, often incorporating meteorological data faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While weather analysts publish seasonal or monthly temperature ranges for Amsterdam in early June, prediction markets allow continuous repricing as new weather models emerge. The market odds on Polymarket tend to converge toward consensus when multiple independent forecasters align, but may diverge when uncertainty is high or when traders identify inefficiencies in analyst consensus.

The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 1 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official meteorological data from recognized weather stations in or near Amsterdam, ensuring an objective, auditable outcome. Once the actual peak temperature is confirmed, the winning outcome is determined and traders' positions settle accordingly. The specificity of the temperature threshold—whether exact degree or range—determines which outcome holders receive their payout.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated meteorological forecasts can significantly move odds. El Niño or La Niña conditions, Atlantic storm systems, and high-pressure systems over Europe all influence European temperatures weeks in advance. Traders monitor long-range weather models, historical temperature data for early June, and any unusual atmospheric conditions. As June 1 approaches, daily weather forecasts become increasingly accurate, typically causing sharper repricing. Unexpected heat waves or cold snaps in surrounding weeks may also signal changing conditions for Amsterdam.