Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 3?

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time contract prices. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract—such as whether the high will be exactly 17°C or fall within a specific range—trades independently, and the price of each contract reflects the probability traders assign to it. When you buy a contract, you're betting that outcome will occur; when you sell, you're betting against it. The platform's liquidity pool ensures continuous pricing, so you can enter or exit positions throughout the trading window without waiting for a counterparty.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Amsterdam on July 3 is finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual meteorological data reported for that day, typically from official weather stations or national meteorological institutes. Once the event concludes and the temperature is confirmed, the market will settle automatically, paying out traders who held the correct outcome contract. The resolution process is straightforward: whichever temperature bracket or exact value was specified in the winning contract receives the full payout.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before Jul 3, 2026. Updated weather models from major forecasting centers—such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—often trigger repricing when they show meaningful changes to the expected high. Seasonal climate anomalies, heat waves, or cold snaps affecting Western Europe can also influence trader positioning. Real-time atmospheric data, including jet stream patterns and high-pressure systems, may prompt traders to adjust their bets. Additionally, as the event date approaches, intraday forecast updates become more precise, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes and concentrating trading volume around the most likely temperature bands.