Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 13?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader expectations and often incorporate the latest weather models and forecaster consensus. Professional meteorologists and climate analysts typically publish temperature forecasts through national weather services and research institutions, which traders then weigh against their own analysis when setting odds in this market. The gap between market-implied probabilities and published analyst forecasts can signal where traders see undervalued or overvalued outcomes, though both sources rely on similar underlying weather data and modeling techniques.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the final outcome, and the price of each outcome reflects the collective belief of all traders. As new information emerges or trading volume shifts, prices adjust dynamically to balance supply and demand, creating a continuous real-time signal of market expectations for Amsterdam's peak temperature on the specified date.

This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Amsterdam on July 13 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual temperature readings against the predefined outcome brackets offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time once official data is confirmed and published.

Weather model updates, seasonal climate patterns, and atmospheric pressure systems can all shift market odds significantly. Major weather forecasts released by meteorological agencies often trigger trading activity as new data becomes available. Unusual heat waves, cold fronts, or other anomalous conditions reported in European weather news may prompt traders to reassess their positions. Additionally, historical temperature records for Amsterdam in mid-July and real-time observations in the days leading up to July 13 can drive price movements as traders refine their expectations based on emerging evidence.