TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?
polymarket

Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?

Volume:
$16,258

50-100mm

 - Polymarket

50-100mm - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 2:19 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

50-100mm

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,955
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

100mm+

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-50mm

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,074
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20mm

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded at the BANGKOK METROPOLIS station between October 4 and October 10, 2026, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). The resolution source for this market will be the TMD, specifically the highest of the values in the "24 hr." column under "Rainfall Amount (mm.)" for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row in the Daily Weather Summary reports dated October 4, 2026 through October 10, 2026, at the https://www.tmd.go.th/en/climate/daily link. Those seven report dates are the governing set, whatever measurement window the TMD applies to each one. The report dated October 11, 2026 will not be considered. Only the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row governs. Other Bangkok-area stations, including BANGKOK PORT (KLONG TOEI), will not be considered. If that row does not appear in a given report, or shows "- No data -", that report date will be excluded and the highest value among the remaining report dates will be used. A value of "No Rain" or "Trace" will be treated as 0mm. Each bracket includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, so a value of exactly 20.0mm, 50.0mm or 100.0mm resolves the higher of the two adjacent brackets to "Yes". If none of the seven report dates yields a value for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "<20mm" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market measures rainfall to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to rainfall recorded after data is published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded at the BANGKOK METROPOLIS station between October 4 and October 10, 2026, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). The resolution source for this market will be the TMD, specifically the highest of the values in the "24 hr." column under "Rainfall Amount (mm.)" for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row in the Daily Weather Summary reports dated October 4, 2026 through October 10, 2026, at the https://www.tmd.go.th/en/climate/daily link. Those seven report dates are the governing set, whatever measurement window the TMD applies to each one. The report dated October 11, 2026 will not be considered. Only the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row governs. Other Bangkok-area stations, including BANGKOK PORT (KLONG TOEI), will not be considered. If that row does not appear in a given report, or shows "- No data -", that report date will be excluded and the highest value among the remaining report dates will be used. A value of "No Rain" or "Trace" will be treated as 0mm. Each bracket includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, so a value of exactly 20.0mm, 50.0mm or 100.0mm resolves the higher of the two adjacent brackets to "Yes". If none of the seven report dates yields a value for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "<20mm" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market measures rainfall to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to rainfall recorded after data is published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bangkok rainfall market displays the current odds for each possible rainfall range, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which indicates how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the most probable outcome, according to traders on Polymarket, is that Bangkok will experience between 20-50mm of rainfall during the specified period. This information helps you understand market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to the event.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. For this market, it’s important to consider that analysts may provide a single point estimate or a range of possible rainfall amounts, while this market allows traders to express probabilities across various outcomes. If analysts predict a specific rainfall level, you can compare that to the implied probability of that range occurring within this market. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates different conditions than experts, or where uncertainty is higher.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy shares in a particular rainfall range, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current 24-hour volume provides insight into how actively traders are adjusting their positions based on new information or changing expectations about Bangkok’s weather.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded in Bangkok between October 4th and 10th will be used to determine the winning outcome. Official meteorological data from recognized weather agencies will be the basis for verification. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout for each outcome once the resolution is complete, allowing for a clear determination of the market’s result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Changes in weather forecasts from reputable sources, such as the Thai Meteorological Department or international weather models, will likely influence trading activity. The development of a tropical storm or monsoon trough near Bangkok would increase the probability of higher rainfall amounts, potentially shifting volume towards those outcomes. Conversely, a forecast of drier conditions could decrease those probabilities. Monitoring these weather patterns and related news reports will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.