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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 22, 2026
polymarket

Will any state have exceptional drought?

Volume:
$5,218

Idaho

 - Polymarket

Idaho - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 10:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Idaho

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

New Mexico

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$549
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

North Carolina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Texas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oklahoma

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mississippi

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Colorado

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wisconsin

View
100%
91%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arkansas

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nevada

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nebraska

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oregon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Utah

View
0%
86%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Florida

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Louisiana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Montana

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Washington

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alabama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Georgia

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Illinois

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Maryland

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

California

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Minnesota

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kansas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for September: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for September: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, assessing how prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts requires looking at broader drought predictions from sources like the US Drought Monitor and NOAA. These sources typically offer seasonal outlooks, while this market focuses on a specific week in 2026. It’s important to note that analysts often provide probabilities across broader regions, whereas this market asks for a binary outcome – whether a specific state will reach D4 drought status. Discrepancies can arise due to differing timescales and geographic granularity, but this market can offer a more granular view of perceived risk as we approach Sep 24, 2026.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each state reaching D4 drought conditions. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the market’s collective forecast. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and confidence in these predictions, influencing price discovery.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the US Drought Monitor data released after that date will be used to determine whether each state experienced Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions during the specified week. The market will settle based on the official D4 drought classifications published by the US Drought Monitor for the week of September 22, 2026, and will reflect the accuracy of the market’s predictions leading up to that point.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major weather patterns, such as the development of a strong El Niño or La Niña, would be key indicators. Significant changes in long-range weather forecasts from NOAA or other meteorological organizations could also shift probabilities. Unexpected rainfall or prolonged heatwaves in drought-prone areas would directly impact the likelihood of D4 conditions developing. Finally, any official announcements or reports regarding water restrictions or agricultural impacts could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market.