TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 15, 2026
polymarket

Will any state have exceptional drought by September 17, 2026?

Volume:
$9,299

Texas

 - Polymarket

Texas - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 11:46 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Texas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oklahoma

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nevada

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mississippi

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

New Mexico

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oregon

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

North Carolina

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nebraska

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Utah

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arkansas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Idaho

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Colorado

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

West Virginia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Delaware

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Wisconsin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Missouri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Washington

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ohio

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

California

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kansas

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Maryland

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Iowa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pennsylvania

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

South Carolina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for September: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for September: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 US drought market displays the current implied probabilities for each US state experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions as defined by the US Drought Monitor during the week of September 15, 2026. You can view the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $2,537, and the total volume traded to date, which is $9,299. The dashboard also provides a history of how the probabilities have shifted over time, giving you a sense of market sentiment. This allows traders to monitor the evolving predictions for drought severity across the country.

Currently, the predictions generated by traders in this market offer a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While expert opinions on climate patterns and drought risk are readily available, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the market's implied probabilities and those of analysts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the likelihood of Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions in specific states by September 15, 2026. It's a valuable tool for assessing the range of possible outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each state experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of drought risk. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by factors like weather forecasts, climate data, and news reports related to water resources.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the US Drought Monitor’s weekly map released the week of September 15, 2026, will be used to determine which states are experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. The market will then settle based on whether the predicted states match those identified by the US Drought Monitor. Traders should monitor the US Drought Monitor releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about the evolving drought situation across the United States.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Major weather events, such as prolonged heatwaves or unusually dry spells, would likely increase the perceived risk of drought and shift probabilities. Conversely, significant rainfall or improvements in water reservoir levels could lower those probabilities. Updates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regarding seasonal climate outlooks and drought forecasts will also be closely watched. Additionally, any policy changes related to water management or conservation efforts could impact market sentiment and trading activity.