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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

Will any state have exceptional drought by October 8, 2026?

Volume:
$17,964

Oklahoma

 - Polymarket

Oklahoma - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 8, 6:24 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Oklahoma

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arkansas

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Idaho

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Texas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mississippi

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

North Carolina

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nevada

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wisconsin

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Colorado

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nebraska

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kentucky

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kansas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New Mexico

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Utah

View
0%
92%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

West Virginia

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Minnesota

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Georgia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Maryland

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Indiana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Montana

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Iowa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Delaware

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Illinois

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Missouri

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for October: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for October: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 US drought market displays the current implied probabilities for each US state experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions as defined by the US Drought Monitor during the week of October 6, 2026. It also shows the trading volume, currently at $17,962, and the 24-hour volume, which is $9,021. Traders can view the price history of each state's outcome, allowing them to analyze market sentiment and potential shifts in predictions. This provides a clear overview of how the market is assessing drought risk across the country.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of drought probability that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While expert meteorologists and climate scientists provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, data sources, or interpretations of climate models. It's important to consider both prediction market signals and expert analysis when evaluating the potential for Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions in 2026. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of the risks.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a state will experience Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of drought risk. The market's efficiency relies on informed traders and active participation, ensuring that prices accurately reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current top outcome is unavailable.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the US Drought Monitor’s weekly map released on or shortly after that date will be used to determine which states meet the criteria for Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. The market will then settle based on whether each state’s status matches the predictions made by traders. The resolution process relies on publicly available data and established drought monitoring standards, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major weather patterns, such as El Niño or La Niña developments, will be closely watched, as they have a substantial impact on precipitation and temperature trends. Significant changes in long-range climate forecasts issued by organizations like the Climate Prediction Center could also drive price movements. Additionally, unexpected policy changes related to water management or drought mitigation efforts could affect market sentiment. Any news regarding severe or prolonged heat waves, or a lack of rainfall in key agricultural regions, will likely cause shifts in trading activity and price adjustments in this market.