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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 27, 2026
polymarket

Will any state have exceptional drought?

Volume:
$1,200

Arkansas

 - Polymarket

Arkansas - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Arkansas

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Colorado

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Idaho

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Louisiana

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mississippi

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Missouri

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nebraska

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oklahoma

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tennessee

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Texas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wisconsin

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Alabama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

California

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Delaware

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Florida

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Georgia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Illinois

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Indiana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Iowa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kansas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kentucky

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Maryland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Minnesota

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Montana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for October: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for October: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 US drought market displays the current implied probabilities for each US state experiencing Exceptional drought (D4) conditions as defined by the US Drought Monitor during the week of October 27, 2026. You’ll find a real-time view of trading activity, including the current price, 24-hour volume of $1,200, and total volume traded to date of $1,200. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to analyze how the market has priced in new information over time. This is a valuable tool for understanding how traders are assessing the likelihood of severe drought conditions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of drought risk that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While expert meteorologists and climate scientists provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. It’s important to remember that forecasts are often probabilistic, and this market offers a dynamic, real-time view of perceived probabilities. Discrepancies between the market and analyst predictions can arise due to differing methodologies, data sources, or interpretations of available information. Examining these differences can be insightful for anyone following this event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of Exceptional drought (D4) in each state. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The market’s price discovery process allows for a dynamic and efficient assessment of drought risk.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the US Drought Monitor’s weekly map released on or shortly after that date will be used to determine which states meet the criteria for Exceptional drought (D4) conditions. The market will then settle based on the number of states classified as D4 on that map. The resolution process relies on publicly available data and established drought monitoring standards, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Key indicators include seasonal climate forecasts from organizations like NOAA, updates on reservoir levels and snowpack in critical regions, and reports of ongoing drought conditions from agricultural agencies. Unexpected weather patterns, such as prolonged heatwaves or lack of precipitation, would likely cause shifts in market prices. Major policy announcements related to water management or drought relief efforts could also impact trader sentiment. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.