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Consecutive days of average temperature in San Diego above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
kalshi

How many days will San Diego be above 90°F?

Volume:
$3,835

2+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

2+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,989
N/A
N/A
$1,931
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
$750
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
$737
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$358
N/A
N/A
$358
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether San Diego will experience consecutive days of high temperatures during a specific week in 2026. It focuses on the frequency and duration of days where the average temperature exceeds a set threshold, providing insight into potential heat patterns.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether San Diego experiences a specified number of consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 7–13, 2026. Each market within this event requires a different minimum number of consecutive qualifying days (ranging from 2 to 6 days) to resolve to Yes. A qualifying day is determined by calculating the average temperature at KSAN as the arithmetic mean of hourly temperature values reported by The Weather Company from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified date range may contribute to a streak, and an average of exactly 90°F does not qualify. Furthermore, any day with fewer than 18 reported hourly values invalidates that day and breaks the streak, preventing it from contributing to consecutive day counts. All data used for resolution will be taken from the published values at the expiration time, with any subsequent revisions disregarded.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the San Diego heat wave market displays the current odds of consecutive days exceeding 90°F during the specified week in September 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $3,835. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential for a significant heat wave in San Diego.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for this event, as detailed long-range temperature predictions are subject to considerable uncertainty. However, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a unique perspective, reflecting their assessment of the likelihood of sustained high temperatures. This market aggregates diverse viewpoints, potentially identifying factors not fully captured in traditional weather models or expert opinions. It's a forward-looking indicator based on real-money stakes, unlike a poll which may reflect current perceptions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of the specified heat wave. The current price is determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature recorded in San Diego during the week of September 7, 2026. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F for a consecutive number of days as defined by the market contract, the market will settle in favor of the ‘yes’ outcome. Otherwise, it will settle in favor of ‘no’.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Long-range weather forecasts released closer to September 2026 will be closely watched. Any indications of a developing El Niño or La Niña pattern, known to affect California’s weather, could shift the odds. Unexpected changes in global climate patterns or major shifts in jet stream behavior could also play a role. Additionally, any news regarding climate change trends or heat wave predictions from meteorological agencies could impact trading activity and move this market.