How many days will San Diego be above 90°F?

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds offered in this market to specific analyst forecasts for San Diego temperatures. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to different probabilities. If prevailing weather models and expert opinions suggest a high probability of a heatwave, we might expect to see the odds on Kalshi shift accordingly, reflecting increased demand from traders who believe the event will occur. Conversely, if forecasts are less confident, the odds may remain lower.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the event will happen. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of consecutive 90°F+ days in San Diego. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for exposure to this potential outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature in San Diego, as reported by a recognized meteorological source, for each day during the week of September 14, 2026. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F on a consecutive number of days as defined by the market rules, the market will settle in favor of 'yes'; otherwise, it will settle as 'no'.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Long-range weather forecasts released in the months leading up to September 2026 will be key, with increasing confidence in a potential heatwave likely driving up prices. Unexpected shifts in large-scale weather patterns, such as the development of a strong high-pressure system over the southwestern United States, could also cause substantial movement. Even news reports about drought conditions or potential energy grid strain in California could impact trader sentiment and therefore the price of contracts in this market.