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San Antonio · Consecutive days with avg temperature above 90°F (Week of Sep 21)
kalshi

How many days will San Antonio be above 90°F?

Volume:
$611

6+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

6+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$445
N/A
N/A
$445
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether San Antonio will experience consecutive days of high temperatures during a specific week. It focuses on determining if the average daily temperature exceeds a set threshold for a minimum number of days in a row. The outcome depends on weather data from a designated location and time frame.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether San Antonio experiences a specified number of consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 21–27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum streak length (2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ days). For any market to resolve as Yes, the required number of consecutive days must occur entirely within the specified week. A day's average temperature is calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly temperatures reported by The Weather Company for KSAT from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. If a day records exactly 90°F, it does not count toward the streak. Additionally, any day with fewer than 18 reported hourly values invalidates that day and breaks the streak. All data used for resolution is taken from the published values at the expiration time, with later revisions disregarded.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the San Antonio heat wave market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the probability of consecutive days with average temperatures exceeding 90°F in San Antonio during the week of September 21, 2026. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $611, indicating the level of interest from forecasters.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds offered in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, examining historical weather patterns and long-range forecasts from meteorological organizations provides a useful benchmark. These sources often predict seasonal temperature trends, and comparing those predictions to the collective wisdom reflected in this market can reveal interesting insights. If analysts widely expect a hotter-than-average September in Texas, we might see increased demand for 'yes' contracts in this market, driving up the price.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the possible outcomes – in this case, whether or not San Antonio will experience consecutive days above 90°F during the specified week. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic forecast of the potential heat wave.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the average daily temperature in San Antonio for each day of the week of September 21, 2026, will be assessed. If there are consecutive days where the average temperature exceeds 90°F, the ‘yes’ contracts will pay out. Otherwise, the ‘no’ contracts will pay out. The resolution will be based on officially recorded temperature data from a recognized meteorological source.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Long-range weather forecasts released in the months leading up to September 2026 will be closely watched. Any indications of a developing El Niño or La Niña pattern, which can influence regional temperatures, could cause shifts in the market. Unexpected heat waves occurring in other parts of the country during the summer of 2026 might also increase traders’ confidence in a hot September for San Antonio. Finally, any significant changes to climate models or predictions could impact how this market is priced.