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Consecutive days of average temperature in San Antonio above 90°F - week of Sep 14, 2026
kalshi

How many days will San Antonio be above 90°F?

Volume:
$320

5+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

5+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 20, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$193
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$116
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether San Antonio will experience consecutive days of high temperatures above 90°F during a specific week. It examines temperature patterns and their persistence over several days, focusing on the reliability of weather data during that period.

Kalshi

The event determines if San Antonio experiences a specified number of consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F between September 14 and September 20, 2026. Each market requires a different minimum number of consecutive days (ranging from 2 to 6 days) to resolve to Yes. A day's average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly temperatures reported by The Weather Company for KSAT from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only full days with at least 18 hourly reports count toward a streak; any day falling short or recording exactly 90°F breaks the streak. All data used for resolution will be the official figures published at the expiration time, with any subsequent revisions disregarded.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the San Antonio heat wave market displays the current implied probability of consecutive days exceeding 90°F during the specified week in September 2026. You'll find a price history chart illustrating how the market has traded over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $320. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the likelihood of prolonged high temperatures in San Antonio.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for this event, as comprehensive long-range temperature predictions are not widely available with quantified probabilities. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, incorporating various factors like seasonal forecasts, climate models, and even anecdotal expectations. If analysts were to release probabilistic forecasts for sustained 90°F+ temperatures in San Antonio during that week, it would be interesting to see how they align with the market’s implied probability.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out $1 if the event occurs, and the implied probability is derived from this price.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature recorded in San Antonio, Texas, during the week of September 14, 2026. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F for a consecutive number of days as defined by the market contract, the market will settle in favor of the 'yes' outcome; otherwise, it will settle to 'no'.

Several factors could influence trading in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released closer to September 2026 will be closely watched, as will any significant shifts in climate patterns like El Niño or La Niña. Unexpected heat waves in other parts of the country during the summer of 2026 could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, any news regarding advancements in climate modeling or changes to San Antonio’s urban heat island effect could also move this market.