TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Consecutive days of average temperature in Phoenix above 90°F - week of Oct 5, 2026
kalshi

How many days will Phoenix exceed 90°F?

Volume:
$4,209

3+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

3+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$618
N/A
N/A
$618
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,650
N/A
N/A
$1,624
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,222
N/A
N/A
$1,222
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$718
N/A
N/A
$718
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the occurrence of sustained high temperatures in Phoenix during a specific week. It examines whether the city experiences consecutive days where the average temperature exceeds a set threshold, reflecting potential heatwave conditions.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Phoenix experiences a specified number of consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of October 5–11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum threshold of consecutive days (from 2 to 6+ days). A day's average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly temperatures reported by The Weather Company for the KPHX station from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only full days within the specified week contribute to a streak, and data revisions after the expiration time are ignored. A day with an average of exactly 90°F or fewer than 18 hourly reports breaks any streak and does not count toward meeting the condition. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the required number of qualifying consecutive days is achieved within the week.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Phoenix heat wave market displays the current implied probability of consecutive days exceeding 90°F during the week of October 5, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,949. The total volume traded to date is $4,209. This allows you to see how traders are assessing the likelihood of prolonged high temperatures in Phoenix and track changes in sentiment as new information becomes available.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds offered in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Phoenix temperatures in October 2026. However, broadly speaking, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts. This includes not just meteorological data, but also factors like potential climate anomalies and even the impact of urban heat island effects. The collective wisdom of traders can sometimes outperform individual expert predictions, offering a unique perspective on the probability of this heat wave occurring.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of consecutive days with average temperatures above 90°F. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The market price effectively represents the cost of insuring against or betting on this specific weather event.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the average daily temperature in Phoenix will be assessed for each day of the week beginning October 5, 2026. The number of consecutive days exceeding 90°F will then be determined based on these verified temperature readings. The final settlement will reflect the actual number of consecutive days that meet this criterion, as reported by reliable meteorological sources.

Several factors could significantly influence trading in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released closer to October 2026 will be closely watched. Any indications of a developing El Niño or La Niña pattern, which can affect regional temperatures, could cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in climate models or reports of unusual atmospheric conditions could also move the market. Finally, even news regarding water restrictions or heat mitigation strategies in Phoenix might impact trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.