TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Phoenix will experience consecutive days with average temperatures exceeding 90°F during a specific week. The focus is on identifying temperature patterns over multiple days to assess heat persistence. Outcomes depend on meeting or exceeding temperature thresholds across the specified timeframe.
The event evaluates whether Phoenix records consecutive days with daily average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. Each market within this event requires a different minimum number of consecutive days (ranging from 2 to 6 days) to resolve to Yes. A day's average temperature is calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly temperatures reported by The Weather Company from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified week count toward a streak, and an average of exactly 90°F does not qualify. If fewer than 18 hourly temperature values are reported for a day, that day breaks any ongoing streak, preventing it from contributing to the required consecutive days. All data used for resolution will be the values published by The Weather Company at the market's expiration time, with any subsequent revisions disregarded. The outcome for each market depends solely on whether the required number of qualifying consecutive days is met within the defined period.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, official National Weather Service records for Phoenix will be examined for the week of August 31, 2026, to count consecutive days where the average temperature exceeded 90°F. The final count determines which market outcome is settled.
Several signals could shift this market before Sep 8, 2026. Early monsoon developments, unexpected heat waves, or cooler-than-forecasted Pacific storm systems can all alter probability estimates. Key catalysts include monthly National Weather Service outlook releases, regional climate pattern updates such as El Niño indicators, and abrupt temperature anomalies captured in real-time weather balloons or satellite data. Any new information that changes the expected persistence of Phoenix’s summer heat will likely drive trading activity.