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Consecutive days of average temperature in Oklahoma City above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
kalshi

How many days will Oklahoma City be above 90°F?

Volume:
$279

6+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

6+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$209
N/A
N/A
$209
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$57
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Oklahoma City will experience consecutive days of high temperatures during a specific week. It focuses on the number of days in a row where the average temperature exceeds a set threshold, providing insight into potential heat patterns.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Oklahoma City records a specified number of consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 7–13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum streak length (2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ days). A day’s average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly readings from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree, using data from The Weather Company. Only days within the specified week count toward a streak. If a day’s average is exactly 90°F, or if fewer than 18 hourly values are reported, the streak is broken. The market resolves based on data published at the expiration time, with later revisions disregarded.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Oklahoma City heat wave market displays the current implied probability of the event occurring, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You can also see the total volume traded in this market, which currently stands at $279, and the 24-hour volume, at $156. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of consecutive days exceeding 90°F in Oklahoma City during the specified week.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While weather analysts provide predictions based on models and historical data, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential unforeseen factors. It’s important to note that prediction market probabilities represent what traders believe will happen, which may differ from expert opinions or long-range forecasts for Oklahoma City’s September temperatures. Examining these differences can reveal valuable insights into market sentiment.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of consecutive 90°F+ days in Oklahoma City. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, changing weather patterns, and overall market sentiment regarding the potential for extreme heat in the region.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature recorded in Oklahoma City during the week of September 7, 2026. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F on a consecutive basis for the duration of that week, the market will settle in favor of ‘yes’. Otherwise, it will settle as ‘no’, reflecting whether the heat wave criteria were met.

Several factors could significantly influence trading activity in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released closer to September 2026 will be key drivers, as will any emerging patterns suggesting a potential for a sustained heat wave. Unexpected shifts in climate models or reports of unusually warm temperatures during the preceding months could also impact trader behavior. Finally, broader economic conditions or news events related to energy demand and climate change awareness might indirectly affect sentiment and volume in this market.