TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Oklahoma City experiences consecutive days of high temperatures during a specific week. It focuses on determining if the daily average temperature exceeds a set threshold for multiple days in a row. The outcome depends on the recorded weather data for that period.
The event evaluates whether Oklahoma City records consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. Multiple markets within this event require different minimum lengths of such consecutive days—ranging from two to six days—to resolve to Yes. For any market to resolve positively, the specified number of consecutive days must all meet the temperature condition within the defined date range. Each day's average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly temperatures reported by The Weather Company from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. A day with exactly 90°F does not count, and any day with fewer than 18 reported hourly values breaks the streak. All data used for resolution will be the version published at the expiration time, with later revisions disregarded.
Currently, this market’s implied probability reflects trader expectations for the heat streak, which can diverge from or align with analyst forecasts from weather services and climate research groups. Analysts often consider historical trends, seasonal patterns, and climate models in their predictions. Comparing this market’s odds to those forecasts helps identify potential surprises or consensus views on extreme heat risk for the period.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, official meteorological data for Oklahoma City will be examined to count consecutive days with average temperatures above 90°F during the week of August 31, 2026, determining whether the streak occurred.
Key signals include updates from long-range weather models, sudden shifts in atmospheric patterns like El Niño or heat dome formations, and reports from regional climate monitoring agencies. Any indication of unusually hot or cool conditions in late August could shift trader sentiment and move this market’s odds significantly as the resolution date approaches.