TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Oklahoma City experiences consecutive days with average temperatures exceeding 90°F during a specific week. The focus is on identifying temperature patterns over multiple days within a defined timeframe, reflecting potential heatwave conditions.
The event evaluates whether Oklahoma City records consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of August 24–30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum streak length (2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ days). A day’s average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly readings from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified week count toward a streak, and an average of exactly 90°F does not qualify. Any day with fewer than 18 hourly reports breaks the streak, and all determinations are based on data published at the expiration time—subsequent revisions are ignored.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a probability that can be compared to analyst forecasts for extended heat periods in Oklahoma City. While analysts may issue region-specific weather outlooks, this market offers a dynamic, crowd-sourced probability that updates with new data and shifts in expectations, often diverging from traditional forecasts as conditions evolve.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, official meteorological data for Oklahoma City will be reviewed to determine whether the required number of consecutive days with average temperatures above 90°F occurred during the defined week.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including medium- to long-range weather forecasts, sudden changes in atmospheric patterns, and updates from regional climate models. Any indication of an emerging heat dome or cooling trend will be closely watched by traders, potentially causing noticeable movement in odds as the week of August 24 approaches.