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Las Vegas · Consecutive days with avg temperature above 90°F (Week of Sep 21)
kalshi

How many days will Las Vegas be above 90°F?

Volume:
$2,239

5+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

5+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,934
N/A
N/A
$1,767
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$171
N/A
N/A
$171
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Las Vegas will experience consecutive days of high temperatures during a specific week. It focuses on the number of days in a row where the average temperature exceeds a set threshold, reflecting potential heatwave conditions.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Las Vegas experiences a specified number of consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 21–27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum streak length (2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ days). A day’s average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly readings reported by The Weather Company for KLAS airport from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified week contribute to a streak. A streak is broken if a day’s average is exactly 90°F or if fewer than 18 hourly values are reported. Data is locked at the expiration time, with later revisions disregarded. Any market requiring a streak of the specified length or more within the week resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Las Vegas heat wave market displays the current implied probability of consecutive days exceeding 90°F during the specified week in September 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,183. The total volume traded to date is $2,239. This allows you to assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations regarding the likelihood of this weather event occurring.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds offered in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Las Vegas temperatures in September 2026. Long-range weather predictions are inherently uncertain, and analysts often provide ranges or probabilities rather than definitive statements. However, this market provides a real-time, aggregated forecast based on the collective wisdom of traders, which may differ from initial expert opinions. Observing how the market evolves can offer insights into shifting expectations as we approach the event date.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of consecutive 90°F+ days in Las Vegas. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the price movements offer a dynamic view of evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily high temperature in Las Vegas, Nevada, during the week of September 21, 2026, as reported by a recognized meteorological source. The market will determine whether there were consecutive days where the average temperature exceeded 90°F, and the outcome will be based on this verified data.

Several factors could influence trading in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released in the coming months will be closely watched, as will any reports on climate trends or El Niño/La Niña patterns that could affect temperatures in the southwestern United States. Unexpected heat waves in other regions during the summer of 2026 could also shift expectations. Finally, any news related to infrastructure preparedness for extreme heat in Las Vegas could indirectly impact the market as it reflects on the perceived likelihood of sustained high temperatures.