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Consecutive days of average temperature in Houston above 90°F - week of Sep 28, 2026
kalshi

How many days will Houston exceed 90°F?

Volume:
$901

4+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

4+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$901
N/A
N/A
$901
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Houston will experience consecutive days with average temperatures exceeding 90°F during a specific week. The focus is on identifying temperature patterns over multiple days to assess heat intensity and duration.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Houston’s Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) records consecutive days with daily average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum streak length (2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ days). A day’s average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly readings reported by The Weather Company from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified week contribute to a streak, and data snapshots at expiration are used—later revisions are ignored. A day with exactly 90°F or fewer than 18 hourly reports invalidates the streak, resetting the count for subsequent days.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Houston heat wave market displays the current implied probability of consecutive days exceeding 90°F during the specified week in September 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $468. The total volume traded to date is $901. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard also highlights the top outcome currently favored by traders.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as detailed long-range weather predictions for September 2026 are limited. However, historical data suggests that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information than traditional forecasts, including local knowledge and real-time observations. This can lead to differences in probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders rather than a single expert opinion. Examining historical heatwave patterns in Houston and comparing them to the market’s implied probability can offer valuable insights.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of consecutive 90°F+ days in Houston. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market operates much like a stock exchange, with bids and asks determining the current price, and traders aiming to profit from correctly anticipating the event’s outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the average daily temperature recorded in Houston during the week of September 28, 2026. Data from official meteorological sources will be used to determine the number of consecutive days where the average temperature exceeded 90°F. The market will then settle based on whether the actual number of days meets or exceeds the threshold represented by the traded contracts.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released closer to September 2026 will be closely watched, as will any significant shifts in climate patterns or predictions regarding El Niño or La Niña. Unexpected heatwaves in other parts of the country during the summer of 2026 could also impact sentiment. Additionally, news reports concerning energy demand, drought conditions in Texas, or any governmental responses to potential heat risks could all contribute to price movements in this market.