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Houston · Consecutive days with avg temperature above 90°F (Week of Sep 21)
kalshi

How many days will Houston exceed 90°F?

Volume:
$234

6+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

6+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Houston will experience consecutive days of high temperatures during a specific week. It focuses on the number of days in a row where the average temperature exceeds a set threshold, providing insight into potential heat patterns.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Houston, measured at KIAH, experiences a specified number of consecutive days with an average temperature strictly above 90°F during the week of September 21–27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different minimum consecutive day requirement (2, 3, 4, 5, or 6+ days). A day’s average temperature is calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly temperatures reported by The Weather Company from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified week contribute to a streak. If a day records exactly 90°F, or has fewer than 18 hourly reports, it breaks the streak and invalidates it for that market. All data used for resolution is taken from the published values at expiration; subsequent revisions are ignored.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Houston heat wave market displays the current prices for contracts predicting whether Houston will experience consecutive days above 90°F during the week of September 21, 2026. You can see the implied probability of different outcomes, the 24-hour trading volume of $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is currently $234. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to visualize how the market has moved over time and assess trader sentiment.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for this event, as long-range temperature predictions are subject to considerable uncertainty. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and expert opinions, potentially offering a more dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of prolonged heat than static forecasts. Examining historical data on forecast accuracy versus prediction market performance in similar climate-related events could provide insights into which approach has been more reliable.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a constantly updated forecast. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the specified conditions are met.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature recorded in Houston during the week of September 21, 2026. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F for a consecutive number of days as defined by the market contract, the corresponding contracts will pay out. The precise methodology for calculating the average temperature will be detailed in the market’s contract specifications.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released by organizations like the National Weather Service will be closely watched. Any significant shifts in climate patterns, such as the development of a strong El Niño or La Niña event, could also impact prices. Additionally, news reports about potential heat mitigation strategies or infrastructure improvements in Houston might affect trader sentiment. Finally, general public awareness and discussion surrounding climate change and extreme weather events could contribute to increased trading volume and price fluctuations.