How many days will Houston exceed 90°F?

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. For this market, it's important to consider that analysts might use climate models and historical data to predict the probability of a heat wave, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or unforeseen events. If analysts predict a high probability of exceeding 90°F for several days, we'd expect to see corresponding high probabilities reflected in this market, though real-time trading can cause divergence.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability assessment of the event occurring. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts drives the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time estimate of the likelihood of consecutive days above 90°F in Houston during the week of September 14, 2026.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature in Houston, Texas, as recorded by a reputable meteorological source. The market will determine if there were consecutive days with an average temperature exceeding 90°F during the week of September 14, 2026. The final outcome will be a binary result: either the condition was met, or it wasn't, based on the verified temperature data.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Long-range weather forecasts released in the months leading up to September 2026 will be closely watched by traders. Any indication of a strong high-pressure system building over the Gulf Coast region would likely increase the probability of a heat wave, driving up prices. Conversely, forecasts predicting cooler temperatures or increased cloud cover could lower prices. Unexpected climate events, such as a major El Niño or La Niña pattern, could also influence market sentiment and trading activity in this market.