How many days will Denver be above 90°F?

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinions. Generally, prediction markets often outperform traditional polls and expert forecasts, as they incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs through financial stakes. For this market, it's important to consider that analysts' forecasts may be based on seasonal trends and historical data, while the market price reflects a dynamic assessment incorporating real-time information and diverse perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional wisdom.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the event occurring. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, providing a real-time estimate of the likelihood of Denver experiencing four or more consecutive days above 90°F during the specified week. Trading volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding the market.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature recorded in Denver during the week of September 21, 2026. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F for four or more consecutive days during that week, the market will settle in favor of 'yes'. Otherwise, it will settle in favor of 'no'. The determination will rely on publicly available meteorological data from established weather sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Long-range weather forecasts, particularly those issued closer to September 2026, will be key drivers. Any indications of a developing high-pressure system over the region, or predictions for unusually warm temperatures, could increase the market price. Conversely, forecasts suggesting cooler, wetter conditions could lower it. Major climate events, such as El Niño or La Niña patterns, could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any news related to climate change or extreme weather events could indirectly impact the market's trajectory.