How many days will Denver be above 90°F?

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market reflects expectations about the likelihood of unusually warm weather in Denver during the specified week. While specific analyst forecasts vary, many climate models are increasingly focused on the potential for extreme weather events. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive forecast than traditional, centralized analysis. This market provides a unique perspective, as participants are putting their capital behind their beliefs about the future temperature in Denver.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of Denver experiencing consecutive 90°F days. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at different price points, indicating the level of conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily high temperature recorded in Denver during the week of October 5, 2026. If Denver experiences consecutive days with an average high temperature exceeding 90°F, the market will settle in favor of the 'yes' outcome. Otherwise, it will settle in favor of the 'no' outcome, and contracts will be paid out accordingly based on the final price.

Several factors could influence the price of this market over the coming months. Long-range weather forecasts, particularly those issued by the National Weather Service and other meteorological organizations, will be closely watched. Any indications of a developing high-pressure system over the region, or predictions for above-average temperatures, could drive the price higher. Conversely, forecasts calling for cooler, wetter conditions could lower the price. Broader climate trends and news related to climate change could also indirectly affect trading activity in this market.