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Consecutive days of average temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth above 90°F - week of Sep 28, 2026
kalshi

How many days will DFW be above 90°F?

Volume:
$374

5+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

5+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Dallas/Fort Worth experiences sustained high temperatures over a specific week. It examines temperature patterns to determine if there are prolonged periods of heat exceeding a set threshold. The focus is on consecutive days of elevated average temperatures during a defined timeframe.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Dallas/Fort Worth records consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different minimum number of consecutive days required for a 'Yes' outcome, ranging from two to six days. The daily average temperature is calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly temperature readings reported by The Weather Company for the KDFW station from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Only days within the specified week contribute to any streak, and data snapshots at the expiration time are used without revisions. A day with an average of exactly 90°F or with fewer than 18 reported hourly values invalidates the streak, resetting the count for consecutive high-temperature days.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Dallas heatwave market displays the current implied probability of the event occurring, as reflected by traders' buy and sell orders. You'll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, along with the total volume traded in the market, currently at $374, and the 24-hour volume, which is $374. This allows you to see how interest and sentiment around consecutive 90°F+ days in Dallas/Fort Worth during the last week of September 2026 are evolving.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds offered in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the Dallas area. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to different probabilities. While weather analysts rely on models and historical data, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who may consider factors not captured in standard forecasts, such as potential shifts in weather patterns or the impact of climate change. It's important to remember that both approaches have inherent limitations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy 'yes' contracts (betting the event *will* happen) or sell 'no' contracts (betting it *won't*). The price of each contract represents the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at different price points, giving traders insight into the current supply and demand for contracts related to the Dallas heatwave.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily high temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, as reported by a reputable weather data source. The market will determine whether there are consecutive days with an average temperature exceeding 90°F during the specified week. The exact data source used for verification will be specified in the market's resolution rules on Kalshi.

Several factors could significantly influence trading activity in this market. Long-range weather forecasts released in the months leading up to September 2026 will be closely watched, as will any reports on potential climate trends affecting the region. Unexpected heatwaves in other parts of the country could also impact sentiment, as they might suggest a higher probability of similar conditions in Texas. Finally, any news regarding changes in weather monitoring technology or data collection methods could also move the market, as it could affect the reliability of the resolution data.