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Consecutive days of average temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth above 90°F - week of Sep 14, 2026
kalshi

How many days will DFW be above 90°F?

Volume:
$405

6+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

6+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 20, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
$236
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$169
N/A
N/A
$167
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Dallas/Fort Worth experiences sustained high temperatures over a specific week. It examines temperature patterns to determine if there are prolonged periods of heat exceeding a set threshold. The outcome depends on daily average temperatures recorded during the specified timeframe.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Dallas/Fort Worth experiences consecutive days with average temperatures strictly above 90°F during the week of September 14–20, 2026, with varying minimum streak lengths across markets. For any market to resolve as Yes, the specified number of consecutive days must meet the temperature requirement solely within the official week. Each day’s average temperature is calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly readings reported by The Weather Company for KDFW from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Data is locked at the expiration time, and later revisions are ignored. A day with exactly 90°F does not count, and any day with fewer than 18 hourly values breaks the streak, preventing it from contributing to the required consecutive sequence. All markets share these core data and validation rules, differing only in the minimum number of qualifying consecutive days needed for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Dallas heatwave market tracks the current implied probability of consecutive days exceeding 90°F in Dallas/Fort Worth during the week of September 14, 2026. You’ll find the current price, a history of price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $192. The total volume traded on this market is $405. This allows you to see how traders are assessing the likelihood of a prolonged heatwave and how interest in the market is evolving.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, forecasts from meteorologists and climate analysts suggest a moderate probability of extended high temperatures in the region during that week. However, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating factors beyond traditional weather modeling. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data, offering a broader perspective on the potential for a significant heatwave.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of consecutive 90°F+ days. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what percentage of the contract's face value a trader must pay to own it, and conversely, what they would receive if they sold it.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the average daily temperature recorded in Dallas/Fort Worth during the specified week. If the average temperature exceeds 90°F for a consecutive number of days as defined by the market rules, the market will settle in favor of the ‘yes’ outcome; otherwise, it will settle in favor of ‘no’. The exact number of qualifying days is detailed in the market specifications on Kalshi.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Long-range weather forecasts released by the National Weather Service or other meteorological organizations will be closely watched. Any updates suggesting a higher or lower probability of a sustained high-pressure system over Texas would likely impact trading activity. Additionally, news reports concerning drought conditions or heat-related public health advisories could also influence traders’ assessments. Finally, any shifts in broader climate patterns or unexpected atmospheric events could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.