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Consecutive days of average temperature in Austin above 90°F - week of Sep 28, 2026
kalshi

How many days will Austin be above 90°F?

Volume:
$0

2+ consecutive days

 - Kalshi

2+ consecutive days - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 11:59 PM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

2+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ consecutive days

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ consecutive days

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether Austin, Texas will experience consecutive days with average temperatures exceeding 90°F during the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. The focus is on determining temperature streaks of varying lengths within this specific timeframe, using officially reported weather data.

Kalshi

Multiple markets within this event evaluate different minimum lengths of consecutive days where the daily average temperature at Austin's KAUS airport exceeds 90°F between September 28 and October 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold—from two to six or more consecutive days—to resolve as 'Yes'. A day's average temperature is calculated as the mean of hourly readings reported by The Weather Company from midnight to midnight local time, rounded to the nearest degree. Only days within the specified week contribute to streaks, and data is locked at expiration time with no later revisions considered. A day with exactly 90°F or fewer than 18 hourly reports breaks any streak and does not count toward meeting any threshold. All markets share these calculation and validation rules, differing only in the required number of consecutive qualifying days.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Austin 90°F heat market tracks the current implied probability of the event occurring, alongside the trading volume. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time, and the 24-hour volume indicates recent trading activity. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the likelihood of consecutive 90°F+ days in Austin during the specified week.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While traditional forecasts often rely on statistical models and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of many individuals placing real-money wagers. If analysts predict a high probability of sustained heat, we might expect to see the price of 'yes' outcomes increase, reflecting similar sentiment. However, discrepancies can arise due to factors not fully captured in traditional models, such as localized microclimates or unforeseen weather patterns, making this market a unique indicator.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the possible outcomes – in this case, whether there will be consecutive days above 90°F in Austin. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood. The current price indicates what percentage of the potential payout a buyer must pay to hold a contract.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the average daily temperature in Austin for each day of the week of September 28, 2026 will be assessed. If consecutive days reach or exceed 90°F, the 'yes' outcome prevails. Otherwise, the 'no' outcome will be determined. The resolution will be based on publicly available temperature data from a reliable source, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the final result of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Long-range weather forecasts released closer to the event date will be closely watched. Any indications of a strong high-pressure system settling over Texas could drive up the price of 'yes' outcomes. Conversely, forecasts predicting cooler temperatures or increased cloud cover would likely lower prices. Additionally, any news regarding climate change patterns or unusual weather phenomena could influence trader sentiment and affect the market's dynamics. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the Austin 90°F heat market.