TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines the price range of XRP at a specific future moment by checking where its value falls within predefined brackets. The outcome depends solely on the cryptocurrency's market valuation at the exact closing time indicated.
The event resolves based on the simple average price of XRP over the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, using the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI). Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price range, with one market designated for prices at or below $1.01999 and another for prices above $1.9799. If pricing data is unavailable or incomplete at the exact expiration time, all affected markets resolve to 'No.' The Exchange ensures clarity regarding any multiple versions of the cryptocurrency being tracked. Continuous real-time indexing by CF Benchmarks underpins all price assessments.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast that may differ from those found in traditional financial polls or analyst reports. These sources often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen. The implied probabilities within this market can offer a unique perspective on potential price movements, potentially highlighting scenarios that aren't fully captured by conventional forecasting methods. It’s important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own expectations for XRP.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for XRP, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular price range is likely, the price of contracts for that range increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to reflect the evolving beliefs of participants, creating a real-time forecast of the XRP price at the specified date and time. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome determined by the XRP price at 5pm EDT on October 9, 2026. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting from established financial data providers. This ensures an objective and transparent resolution process. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct price range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect ranges will not. The market's resolution will finalize the collective prediction and provide a clear record of the forecast.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly those impacting XRP, would likely cause substantial price movements. Technological advancements within the Ripple network, such as upgrades or partnerships, could also affect trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic trends, including changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall market sentiment towards risk assets, will play a role. Unexpected news events related to Ripple or its competitors could also lead to shifts in the market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.