TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Science and Technology
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
🌟New
polymarket
opinion
kalshi

What price will Bitcoin hit in November?

Total volume:
$2,472,619
Volume 24h:
$1,925,125N/A
Liquidity:
$919,879
16%
Open interest:
$288,265
176%

↑ 77,500

 - Polymarket

↑ 77,500 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Time left: 28d:01h:47m

Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 92¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% | APY: 196% 28 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ 77,500

Trade
91%
Yes 92¢No 9.3¢
1.3¢
$7,302
$7,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
polymarket

↓ 75,000

Trade
78%
12%
Yes 78¢No 23¢
1¢
$53,062
$148,811
447%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↓ 75,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
77.5%
Yes 78¢No 23¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

↑ 80,000

Trade
69%
10%
Yes 69¢No 32¢
1¢
$50,048
$427,242
195%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
kalshi

Above $80,000.00

Trade
67%
14%
Yes 68¢No 33¢
1¢
N/A
$19,823
46%
N/A
$15,872
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↑ 80,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
68.4%
Yes 68.5¢No 32.5¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

↓ 72,500

Trade
56%
10%
Yes 56¢No 45¢
1¢
$41,424
$55,430
249%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↓ 72,500

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
55.5%
Yes 56¢No 45¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Above $82,500.00

Trade
48%
13%
Yes 49¢No 53¢
2¢
N/A
$14,629
87%
N/A
$9,661
4w 1h
Active
polymarket

↑ 82,500

Trade
48%
10%
Yes 48¢No 53¢
1¢
$33,414
$30,330
170%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↑ 82,500

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
47.7%
Yes 48.5¢No 53¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

↓ 70,000

Trade
38%
7%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$42,166
$63,304
226%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↓ 70,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
37.5%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 6¢
kalshi

Above $85,000.00

Trade
34%
6%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
N/A
$9,655
258%
N/A
$8,385
4w 1h
Active
polymarket

↑ 85,000

Trade
32%
12%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
$36,858
$22,093
30%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↑ 85,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
32.3%
Yes 32.5¢No 68.5¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

↓ 67,500

Trade
26%
6%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
$40,749
$75,233
245%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↓ 67,500

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
25.5%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Above $87,500.00

Trade
23%
5%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
N/A
$13,586
167%
N/A
$12,539
4w 1h
Active
polymarket

↑ 87,500

Trade
20%
9%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
$37,603
$13,856
223%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↑ 87,500

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
21.2%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

↓ 65,000

Trade
18%
5%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$37,682
$98,764
310%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
opinion

↓ 65,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.5%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Above $90,000.00

Trade
16%
6%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
N/A
$105,047
69%
N/A
$95,970
4w 1h
Active
polymarket

↑ 90,000

Trade
13%
6%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$57,350
$38,688
142%
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15.1%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 47

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin reaching $77,500 at any point during November. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi indicates an 82.0% probability of Bitcoin reaching this price level. Resolution will be determined based on whether the price of BTC ever exceeds $80,000 through 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, as defined by the resolution source. Traders should watch the final days of November 2026, as the resolution hinges on price action within that timeframe.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve based on any price exceeding a threshold through the end of November, while Polymarket markets resolve based on a 1-minute Binance candle reaching or exceeding the threshold.Hero tip: Consider the difference in resolution criteria. Kalshi's 'ever above' is more lenient than Polymarket's requirement for a sustained 1-minute candle high.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if any Binance 1-minute candle during November has a High price equal to or greater than the specified price. Source: Binance BTC/USDT chart (1m candles).
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026 is ever above the specified price. No specific source beyond general market data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit in November?

Kalshi

All markets resolve to Yes if, at any minute between issuance and 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the trimmed mean price of Bitcoin exceeds the specified threshold. The trimmed mean calculation removes the top and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute price data to mitigate the impact of extreme spikes or drops, then averages the remaining values. If this adjusted average surpasses the threshold for even a single minute, the market resolves positively. The measurement period begins at issuance and ends at the specified time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, all affected markets resolve to No. The Exchange specifies the exact Bitcoin version or ticker being tracked where multiple versions exist.

Opinion

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the price of Bitcoin in November. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $2,463,646, with $1,800,496 traded in the last 24 hours. The November Bitcoin price market combines forecasts from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive outlook. Polymarket currently favors Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? at 91.3%, while Kalshi leans toward Will BTC trimmed mean be above $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? at 67.0%. This allows traders to see a broader range of potential outcomes and understand overall market sentiment.

Prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd forecast, often incorporating information not immediately apparent in spot prices. Unlike traditional financial instruments, this market allows participants to express beliefs about future events directly. The current pricing suggests a degree of uncertainty around Bitcoin’s November value, with traders weighing factors like macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and adoption rates. Comparing the implied probability distribution from this market to futures contracts or analyst predictions can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives on Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets. Trading interfaces, fee structures, and liquidity levels also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific market structures on each platform – the available outcomes and their associated payouts – can influence how traders assess probabilities. These factors combine to create potentially divergent views on the likely November Bitcoin price, even when addressing the same underlying question.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the verified Bitcoin price at a specific time in November, as determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available data source. Traders should review the platform’s documentation for the exact methodology used to determine the final price, but the process aims to provide a transparent and objective assessment of the outcome.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as interest rate decisions or inflation reports, often influence Bitcoin’s price. Regulatory developments, including potential approvals or restrictions on cryptocurrency exchanges or ETFs, are also crucial catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or significant technological breakthroughs related to blockchain technology could also drive price movements. Finally, large-scale adoption by institutional investors or shifts in public sentiment could substantially alter the outlook for Bitcoin in November.