TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Total volume:
$41,269,963
Volume 24h:
$214,602
51%
Liquidity:
$1,504,557
0.26%
Open interest:
$873,310
0.25%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group aggregates binary prediction markets on whether Bitcoin will reach or dip to specific price levels by December 31, 2026. Markets span a wide range from $5,000 to $1,000,000, capturing both bullish scenarios (upside targets) and bearish scenarios (downside floors). The core question is whether Bitcoin's price will touch these thresholds at any point during the observation window, regardless of where it settles.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution sources (Binance 1-minute candle High/Low prices vs. CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index spot price) and different observation windows (Polymarket starts November 24, 2025 for most markets; Kalshi starts January 1-2, 2026), creating potential price discrepancies and timing misalignment.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Polymarket, your resolution depends on Binance 1m candle extremes, which can spike above or dip below the CF Index used on Kalshi. On Kalshi, you need sustained spot price above the threshold; on Polymarket, even a brief 1-minute candle touch triggers resolution. Kalshi's later start date (Jan 1-2, 2026) means it misses any price action Polymarket captures from Nov 24, 2025 onward.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High (for upside targets) or Low (for downside targets) touches the specified price between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. Resolution is immediate upon candle touch, regardless of final price. Quote: 'This market will immediately resolve to YES if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)...has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified.'
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index spot price is above the specified threshold at any point starting January 1-2, 2026 (varies by market) through December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. Resolution requires the spot price to exceed the threshold, not merely touch it. Quote: 'If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $[threshold] starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.