TOTAL VOLUME:
$143b
24H VOL:
$111,424,783
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,676,623,266
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,630,632,565
494,234
Markets across
37,330
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,871
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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↑ 90,000
- Polymarket
↑ 90,000 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Related News
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
$
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin reaching a price of $130,000 at any point during 2026. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi gives an estimated 96.6% probability to this outcome. Resolution will be determined by Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle data between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, as detailed in the resolution source. Keep an eye on the beginning of the observation window on November 24, 2025, to see how early trading impacts market confidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Three distinct data sources (CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, and unspecified Opinion source) with non-uniform observation windows create settlement fragmentation. Kalshi markets have staggered start dates ranging from 10/01/2025 to 01/02/2026; Polymarket markets observe from market creation or 11/24/2025; Opinion platform lacks explicit resolution mechanics.Hero tip: Do not assume cross-platform market equivalence. Verify the exact data source and observation window for each platform before trading. Kalshi's CF Index may diverge from Binance spot prices due to methodology differences. Polymarket's 1-minute candle approach can capture brief intraday spikes that index-based markets may miss. Opinion markets lack transparent resolution criteria and should be treated as sentiment indicators only.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Uses CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index as sole resolution source. Markets have heterogeneous start dates: Market 5 begins 10/01/2025 10:00 AM (earliest), Markets 2-4 and 7 begin 01/01/2026 12:00 AM, Markets 1 and 6 begin 01/02/2026 06:00 PM. All end 12/31/2026 23:59 ET. Resolves YES if index price exceeds threshold at any point during window. Key quote: 'If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles as sole resolution source. Most markets observe from market creation through 12/31/2026 23:59 ET; some (e.g., Markets 1, 9) begin 11/24/2025 14:00 ET. Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle Low (for downside markets) or High (for upside markets) crosses threshold. Key quote: 'This market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)...has a final Low/High price equal to or [lower/greater] than the price specified.'
- Opinion: Provides directional price targets (11 markets: 6 upside targets ↑, 5 downside targets ↓) without explicit resolution mechanics, data source, or observation window. Targets range from ↓5,000 to ↑150,000. No resolution criteria specified.
Polymarket
What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by whether the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) crosses specified price thresholds at any point during the measurement period. The resolution value uses a trimmed mean calculation: all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance through the target date and time are collected, the top 20% and bottom 20% of values are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged. If the BRTI crosses a threshold during the measurement period, the market resolves immediately to Yes. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. Different thresholds have different measurement start times: the $99,999.99 and $109,999.99 thresholds begin measurement on 01/02/2026 at 06:00 PM ET, while higher thresholds ($119,999.99 and above) begin on 01/01/2026 at 12:00 AM ET. All thresholds measure through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Early resolution occurs if Bitcoin definitively crosses a threshold before the target date and time.
Opinion
Price source: Binance Spot BTCUSDT one-minute OHLC candles on the Binance chart with “1m” selected. No other exchanges or pairs are considered. Time window: From 00:00 ET on February 1, 2026 through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026, inclusive of both endpoints. Meaning of “hit”: For any “↑ X” outcome: it immediately resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle’s High ≥ X at any time within the window; otherwise No. For any “↓ X” outcome: it immediately resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle’s Low ≤ X at any time within the window; otherwise No.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of participants with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same underlying event. Furthermore, the way each platform structures its markets—contract types, margin requirements, and trading fees—can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? at 54.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? at 23.0%.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available source for Bitcoin pricing data. This ensures an objective and transparent resolution process. Traders should monitor news and data sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential price movements and factors that could influence the final outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrency, particularly in the United States and Europe, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected macroeconomic shocks, such as shifts in interest rate policies or global recessions, could also drive price fluctuations. Technological developments related to Bitcoin, like advancements in scaling solutions or security protocols, could influence investor sentiment. Finally, significant adoption by institutional investors or large corporations could create upward pressure on the price, while negative news regarding security breaches or regulatory crackdowns could lead to declines.
