TOTAL VOLUME:

$139.4b

24H VOL:

$152,239,259

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,540,891,627

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,622,981,384

471,589

Markets across

36,389

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,918

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?
kalshi
polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?

Volume:
$8,976,725

$64,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$64,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$64,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,324,910
N/A
N/A
$312,935
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,117,904
N/A
N/A
$299,109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$498,538
N/A
N/A
$80,658
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$328,440
N/A
N/A
$78,038
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$309,464
N/A
N/A
$109,418
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$150,413
N/A
N/A
$66,977
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$76,182
N/A
N/A
$58,827
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$63,657
N/A
N/A
$41,102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47,054
N/A
N/A
$33,481
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,358
N/A
N/A
$20,706
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,163
N/A
N/A
$15,193
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 64,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,552
N/A
N/A
$7,276
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,744
N/A
N/A
$7,693
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,654
N/A
N/A
$4,949
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,478
N/A
N/A
$3,143
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,230
N/A
N/A
$2,409
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,699
N/A
N/A
$474
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,381
N/A
N/A
$2,381
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,041
N/A
N/A
$2,041
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,744
N/A
N/A
$1,744
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,133
N/A
N/A
$1,133
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$873
N/A
N/A
$873
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$530
N/A
N/A
$530
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
$479
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 64

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin will reach $64,000 during the week of July 13–19, 2026. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for Bitcoin hitting $64,000 during this window, with 0.0% probability assigned to reaching $66,000. Resolution will be determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, with the market settling after 11:59 PM ET on July 19, 2026, marking the end of the specified trading window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal scope and measurement methodology diverge significantly. Kalshi resolves on a single snapshot at a specific time on July 17; Polymarket resolves on any extreme price touch during the full July 13–19 window. Additionally, Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI while Polymarket uses Binance spot market data.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi is a point-in-time bet on Bitcoin's price at exactly 5 PM EDT on July 17; Polymarket is a range bet on whether Bitcoin will ever touch a price level during the week. Kalshi markets are more resistant to intraday volatility outside July 17; Polymarket markets reward early-week moves. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if one platform prices in the full-week volatility and the other does not.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single snapshot measurement: CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average at exactly 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. All 50 markets resolve Yes or No based on whether this single value exceeds the stated threshold. No intraday volatility or other dates matter.
  • Polymarket: Range-based measurement: Any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high (for upside targets) or low (for downside dips) during July 13–19, 12 AM–11:59 PM ET. Markets resolve Yes if the target is touched at any point during the week; timing and frequency are irrelevant.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) measured before 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' BRTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. At the final moment before expiration, 60 individual BRTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official settlement value.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price prediction market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on where Bitcoin's price will settle during the July 13–19 window. This market reflects collective expectations from thousands of participants placing capital on specific price outcomes. By tracking positions across multiple venues, the dashboard reveals how different trader cohorts assess near-term Bitcoin momentum, volatility, and support or resistance levels. The cross-platform view helps identify whether consensus is firm or fragmented, offering insight into conviction levels around the week's price action.

Prediction market odds represent probabilistic bets on discrete price outcomes, whereas spot prices reflect the current market rate at any moment. This market's odds encode trader conviction about whether Bitcoin will reach, exceed, or fall short of key price thresholds during the specified week. Unlike spot prices, which react instantly to news and order flow, prediction market odds aggregate forward-looking sentiment over a longer horizon. The gap between current spot price and the implied price from market odds can signal whether traders expect appreciation, depreciation, or consolidation ahead.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve communications, inflation data releases, geopolitical developments, and Bitcoin-specific news such as regulatory announcements or large institutional transactions. Macroeconomic shifts—interest rate expectations, dollar strength, equity market volatility—often correlate with Bitcoin price swings and can rapidly reprrice this market. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows, whale wallet movements, and mining difficulty adjustments may also influence trader positioning. Technical levels, support and resistance zones, and options expiry dates can trigger sharp moves. Real-time monitoring of news flow and order book depth helps traders anticipate repricing before it occurs.