TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.8b
24H VOL:
$153,964,051
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,815,744,871
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,809,858,743
498,684
Markets across
37,244
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,831
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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$100M
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2028
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the Predict.fun governance token will exceed $50M one day after its public launch. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Opinion is 99.9%. Resolution will be determined by the most liquid price source available for the Predict.fun governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launch. Keep an eye on the Predict.fun token launch itself, scheduled for an as-yet unspecified date, as this will initiate the 24-hour window for FDV calculation and ultimately, market resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology (supply × price), same timestamp definition (4:00 PM ET day after launch), same launch qualification criteria (active public transferability), and same deadline (December 31, 2027). Only difference is threshold granularity: Polymarket offers 12 thresholds ($50M–$2B), Opinion offers 6 thresholds ($25M–$500M), but resolution logic is unified.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Predict.fun governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launchCore resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
- FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price from the most liquid available source
- Resolution timestamp is exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No if FDV is at or below threshold
- If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to No
- Each threshold tier (e.g., $100M, $200M, $500M) is an independent binary market
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Launch Definition Ambiguity: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. Private sales, pre-launch trading, or restricted transfers do not qualify. Launch occurs when token becomes freely tradable on public markets.
- Most Liquid Price Source: If multiple exchanges list the token, use the exchange with highest volume/liquidity at the 4:00 PM ET timestamp. If liquidity is fragmented, aggregate from top venues or use volume-weighted average price (VWAP) if available.
- Supply Uncertainty: Total token supply must be verifiable from official Predict.fun sources or smart contract. If supply is disputed or changes post-launch, use the supply figure at the 4:00 PM ET resolution timestamp.
- Timezone Edge Case: 4:00 PM ET applies year-round; account for daylight saving time transitions. If launch occurs on a day with DST change, use the official ET time at that date.
- No Launch by Deadline: If Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of threshold.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd assessment of future probabilities, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional spot price expectations. The current pricing on Polymarket and Opinion incorporates information from a diverse range of traders, weighing various factors that could influence Predict.fun's FDV. This differs from spot prices, which are based on immediate supply and demand. Therefore, this market can serve as a forward-looking indicator, distilling collective beliefs about the future value of Predict.fun.
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Opinion are common due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different demographic of traders with unique insights, leading to differing valuations. Similarly, the liquidity and volume on each platform—currently $8,484,583 overall—can influence price discovery. Furthermore, differing risk appetites and interpretations of available information among traders on each platform contribute to these observed price differences. These factors create distinct market dynamics, even for the same underlying event.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the fully diluted valuation of Predict.fun one day after its launch, as determined by publicly available data sources. The outcome is not dependent on any single source, but rather a consensus view based on verifiable information. Traders should monitor relevant news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Predict.fun’s development, partnerships, or adoption rates would be key catalysts. Positive news, such as successful integrations or increased user activity, could drive up expectations of a higher FDV. Conversely, negative news, like security vulnerabilities or regulatory challenges, could lower expectations. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space and overall investor sentiment could also influence trading activity and price movements in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders.
