TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$107,266,600

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,258,675

332,550

Markets across

33,140

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,150

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
polymarket
opinion

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$7,364,276
Volume 24h:
$13,555
348%
Liquidity:
$320,078
4%
Open interest:
$1,331,714N/A

$50M

all

2 markets

Opinion

95.5%

Polymarket

90.3%

consensus

92.9%

+1.1%

spread

90.3-95.5%

(5.2pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$5k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

$50M

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 95.5¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 3% 491 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90.3¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 8% 492 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks whether Predict.fun's governance token will have a Fully Diluted Valuation above $50M one day after its public launch. The aggregated consensus probability for the $50M outcome stands at 95.5% across Polymarket and Opinion. Resolution will be determined by the most liquid price source available for the Predict.fun governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch. Keep an eye on the token's public launch for potential resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology (supply × price), same timestamp definition (4:00 PM ET day after launch), same launch qualification criteria (active public transferability), and same deadline (December 31, 2027). Only difference is threshold granularity: Polymarket offers 12 thresholds ($50M–$2B), Opinion offers 6 thresholds ($25M–$500M), but resolution logic is unified.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Predict.fun governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launch

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price from the most liquid available source
  • Resolution timestamp is exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
  • Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No if FDV is at or below threshold
  • If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to No
  • Each threshold tier (e.g., $100M, $200M, $500M) is an independent binary market

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch Definition Ambiguity: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. Private sales, pre-launch trading, or restricted transfers do not qualify. Launch occurs when token becomes freely tradable on public markets.
  • Most Liquid Price Source: If multiple exchanges list the token, use the exchange with highest volume/liquidity at the 4:00 PM ET timestamp. If liquidity is fragmented, aggregate from top venues or use volume-weighted average price (VWAP) if available.
  • Supply Uncertainty: Total token supply must be verifiable from official Predict.fun sources or smart contract. If supply is disputed or changes post-launch, use the supply figure at the 4:00 PM ET resolution timestamp.
  • Timezone Edge Case: 4:00 PM ET applies year-round; account for daylight saving time transitions. If launch occurs on a day with DST change, use the official ET time at that date.
  • No Launch by Deadline: If Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of threshold.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Predict.fun governance token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Frequently asked questions

The Predict.fun FDV launch market aggregates trader positions across multiple prediction platforms, including Polymarket and Opinion, to measure consensus on whether the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of launch. Aggregate volume across all venues totals $7,340,558, reflecting sustained interest in this event. The dashboard displays real-time odds, historical price movement, and platform-specific forecasts, enabling traders to compare how different markets price the same outcome and identify arbitrage opportunities or conviction shifts as launch approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect trader consensus on FDV thresholds, while spot price expectations depend on secondary market trading immediately after launch. Markets price in uncertainty around initial liquidity, listing venue, and early demand. A high implied probability in this market suggests traders expect strong post-launch valuation, but spot prices may diverge if actual trading volume or market conditions differ from pre-launch assumptions. Comparing odds across venues helps isolate whether disagreement stems from different trader bases, risk appetites, or information access rather than fundamental disagreement on the outcome.

Polymarket and Opinion may price this market differently due to variations in user demographics, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket's larger user base and higher volume can lead to tighter spreads and faster price discovery, while smaller venues may reflect niche trader conviction or liquidity constraints. Differences in how each platform defines the FDV threshold, settlement timing, or dispute resolution can also create persistent gaps. Traders exploit these spreads by buying low on one platform and selling high on another, gradually narrowing divergence over time.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on whether Predict.fun's fully diluted valuation meets or exceeds the specified threshold exactly one day after its official launch. Traders should monitor official announcements, token listing details, and early trading data to assess the likelihood of resolution in their favor. Any disputes are adjudicated according to each platform's standard procedures.

Key catalysts include official launch date confirmation, pre-launch token allocation details, exchange listing announcements, and early trading volume or price action. Regulatory developments affecting crypto tokens, broader market sentiment, and competitor token launches can also shift odds. Social media momentum, influencer endorsements, and technical updates to the Predict.fun protocol may signal stronger or weaker demand. As launch approaches, intraday volatility typically increases as traders react to new information and adjust positions ahead of the one-day settlement window.