TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.5b
24H VOL:
$88,584,025
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,361,103,189
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,156,797,162
328,564
Markets across
33,078
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,111
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
↓ 1.20
- Polymarket
↓ 1.20 - Polymarket
75%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
No volume data
Aug 25
Aug 25
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Aug 26
Aug 26
Aug 26
Vol.
$0.0
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Resolves Jan 1, 2027
$
This group of markets predicts whether XRP will reach or dip to specific price levels by December 31, 2026. The outcomes depend on the price action of XRP within the defined timeframe and thresholds.
What price will XRP hit before 2027?
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for XRP throughout the year 2026, with each threshold representing a distinct market outcome. For each threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes' if XRP’s price falls below the specified level at any point after market issuance and before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Prices are assessed continuously on a minute-by-minute basis using CF XRPUSD_RTI data. To mitigate the impact of extreme price spikes or drops, the methodology trims the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset for each minute before calculating a trimmed mean. If this adjusted mean falls below the threshold for any single minute, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' Should CF Benchmarks data be unavailable or incomplete at expiration, the affected markets resolve to 'No.' The exchange specifies the exact XRP version or ticker being tracked, ensuring clarity in measurement. All markets share this consistent evaluation framework, differing only in their respective price thresholds.
Prediction market odds offer a forward-looking perspective that often diverges from current spot prices. While spot prices reflect recent trading activity and market sentiment, this market incorporates expectations about future events, regulatory changes, and technological developments that could influence XRP’s value. Traders may price in bull or bear scenarios that aren’t yet reflected in immediate exchange prices. Comparing the two can reveal market optimism or caution about XRP’s long-term trajectory.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user bases, available markets, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026? at 74.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will XRP trimmed mean be below $0.75 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026? at 21.0%. Factors such as liquidity, regional participation, and market design can create a spread of 53.0 between the two venues, reflecting diverse trader perspectives on XRP’s future price path.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of XRP on the specified date will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds, and the result will be settled based on widely accepted data sources. Traders can track updates as we approach the resolution window to see how market expectations are shaping up.
Several signals could shift odds in this market over the next year. Regulatory announcements, major adoption deals, updates to XRP’s underlying technology, or broader cryptocurrency market trends may all influence trader sentiment. Macroeconomic factors and exchange-specific developments can also create volatility. As we near Jan 1, 2027, any news that impacts XRP’s perceived value or usage could cause rapid shifts in market probabilities.