TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
predict
polymarket

What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

Dec 30, 2025, 3:04 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$892,688
Volume 24h:
$19,809
237%
Liquidity:
$165,241
4%
Open interest:
$64,545N/A

↓ $3

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Lighter dip to $3 before 2027?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 0.47% Illiquid market 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ $3

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
$10,913
$3,881
33%
64%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
disputed
predict

↓ $3

Trade
78%
4%
Yes 78.1¢No 21.9¢
—
$162
$2,609
0.12%
0.12%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
91.2%
Yes 89.1¢No 11¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

↑ $6

Trade
40%
Yes 40¢No 60.7¢
0.7¢
$30,499
$1,984
0%
19%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

↑ $6

Trade
32%
Yes 38¢No 76¢
14¢
$401
$82,880
1%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39.7%
Yes 39¢No 68.4¢
Avg: 7.4¢Max: 14¢
polymarket

↓ $2.5

Trade
48%
Yes 53¢No 66¢
19¢
$89
$1,688
0%
42%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

↓ $2.5

Trade
29%
1%
Yes 57.3¢No 99.9¢
57.2¢
$2,127
$1,960
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
37.6%
Yes 55.2¢No 83¢
Avg: 38.1¢Max: 57.2¢
polymarket

↓ $2

Trade
24%
3%
Yes 27¢No 79¢
6¢
$407
$378
0%
19%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

↓ $2

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24%
Yes 27¢No 79¢
Avg: 52.6¢Max: 99.1¢
predict

↑ $8

Trade
29%
12%
Yes 47.8¢No 89.7¢
37.5¢
$2,164
$978
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

↑ $8

Trade
16%
Yes 19.8¢No 87¢
6.8¢
$12,200
$101,021
0%
0.69%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16.4%
Yes 33.8¢No 88.4¢
Avg: 22.2¢Max: 37.5¢
polymarket

↑ $15

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 7.6¢No 97.4¢
5¢
$445
$950
33%
33%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

↑ $15

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.1%
Yes 7.6¢No 97.4¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

↑ $10

Trade
5%
Yes 5.7¢No 95.6¢
1.3¢
$39,716
$148,515
2%
3%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

↑ $10

Trade
N/A
N/A
96.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.1%
Yes 5.7¢No 95.6¢
Avg: 48.9¢Max: 96.6¢
polymarket

↑ $12

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 97.2¢
1.9¢
$35,566
$7,675
0%
7%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

↑ $12

Trade
N/A
N/A
98.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 4.7¢No 97.2¢
Avg: 50.3¢Max: 98.8¢
polymarket

↑ $20

Trade
3%
Yes 4.7¢No 99.1¢
3.8¢
$400
$502
0.2%
0.2%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

↑ $20

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 4.7¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 3.8¢Max: 3.8¢
polymarket

↓ $1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$169,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$151,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

↓ $2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$128,229
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

↑ $3

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$77,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
predict

↑ $4

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
43.7¢
$30,151
$11,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

↓ $1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks whether the cryptocurrency Lighter will dip to $3 before January 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated probability across Predict and Polymarket indicates a 92.0% chance of this outcome. This consensus view combines data from both platforms, with resolution based on Lighter (LIT/USDC) 1-minute candles at https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC. As this event group centers around predicting price points before the end of 2026, traders should watch for significant volatility around December 31, 2026, as that will determine whether Lighter hits or dips to these levels.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms rely on the same data source (Lighter LIT/USDC 1-minute candles) and similar logic for determining market resolution, with minor date variations addressed in the timing section.Primary resolution logic: Lighter (LIT/USDC) 1-minute candles at https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the High or Low price of a 1-minute candle for the LIT/USDC pair on the Lighter exchange.
  • For 'reach' markets, the High price must be equal to or greater than the target price.
  • For 'dip' markets, the Low price must be equal to or lower than the target price.
  • Price action from other exchanges or trading pairs is not considered.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Timing Differences: Polymarket has different start/end dates for some markets (e.g., Dec 30, 2025 - Dec 31, 2026 vs. Jan 27, 2026 - Dec 31, 2026). Resolution will be based on the specific dates defined for each individual market on each platform.
  • Simultaneous Hit/Dip: If a 1-minute candle simultaneously hits a 'reach' target and dips to a 'dip' target, both markets will resolve independently based on their respective criteria.
Timing: Resolution will occur when a 1-minute candle meets the specified price criteria within the defined timeframe for each individual market. Polymarket markets generally resolve between December 30, 2025 and December 31, 2026, while some markets on both platforms extend to December 31, 2026. The specific dates for each market on each platform will govern resolution.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Lighter hit before 2027?

Predict

What price will Lighter hit before 2027?

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this market tracks predictions on the price of Lighter in 2026. The dashboard aggregates trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms to provide a consensus view. Currently, the combined volume across these venues is $892,647, with $5,437 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of where the crowd believes the Lighter price will land, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional financial analysis. The Lighter price market provides a forward-looking assessment of this cryptocurrency's potential.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent a collective forecast of future events, in this case, the Lighter price. Unlike spot prices, which reflect current value, these odds incorporate expectations about future supply, demand, and broader market sentiment. This can lead to divergences between current prices and the implied probabilities within this market. If a significant event is anticipated, the odds may move more quickly than the spot price, offering insight into potential future price movements. Analyzing these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with potentially varying risk appetites and information sets, which influences their trading behavior. Additionally, the volume of trading on each platform – currently $892,647 overall – impacts price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors the outcome that Lighter will reach $6 before 2027 at 100.0%, while Predict leans toward the same outcome at 78.1%, showing a general consensus but still some variation.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the Lighter price in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized source for cryptocurrency pricing data. The resolution will reflect the consensus price of Lighter at the end of 2026, providing a clear and objective outcome for this market. Traders can monitor the progress of this market and adjust their positions accordingly as the resolution date approaches.

Several key signals could influence this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency landscape, such as regulatory changes or the adoption of Lighter by significant institutions, could significantly impact price expectations. Technological advancements related to Lighter's underlying blockchain, or security breaches, would also be influential factors. Furthermore, macroeconomic events like changes in interest rates or inflation could affect investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies generally, and therefore this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the Lighter price market.