TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
polymarket
kalshi
opinion

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Total volume:
$73,793,943
Volume 24h:
$12,861
90%
Liquidity:
$100,867
3%
Open interest:
$5,886,111
0.13%

by December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

by December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?

33%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 37¢ buys you 270 shares | Odds: 33% Total Payout: $270 | Net Profit: $170 Multiplier: 2.70x | ROI: 170% | APY: 127% 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

by December 31, 2027

Trade
33%
10%
Yes 37¢No 71¢
8¢
$13,686
$12,778
6%
14%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

by September 30, 2027

Trade
19%
3%
Yes 22¢No 84¢
6¢
$5,181
$8,538
10%
24%
N/A
11mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

by June 30, 2027

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$10,789
$8,832
0%
1%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

by March 31, 2027

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 8¢No 96¢
4¢
$5,617
$2,671
0%
46%
N/A
5mo 2w 3d
active
opinion

December 31, 2026

Trade
28%
Yes 27.7¢No 96.9¢
24.6¢
N/A
$1,069,712
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
active
kalshi

Before January 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$1,612,839
0.55%
2%
$746,350
3mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

by December 31, 2026

Trade
3%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.5¢
0.3¢
$65,594
$2,866,723
0.01%
0.06%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 11.5¢No 97.1¢
Avg: 8.6¢Max: 24.6¢
kalshi

Before June 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,394,595
N/A
N/A
$2,669,461
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before May 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,678,944
N/A
N/A
$1,104,224
3mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

by June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,066,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,929,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
opinion

December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,435,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

by December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,555,670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,038,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
kalshi

Before September 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,019,377
N/A
N/A
$502,964
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before August 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$889,445
N/A
N/A
$486,032
3mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

by September 30, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$778,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before July 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$424,577
N/A
N/A
$377,079
3mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

by March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by December 31, 2027. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion is 30.0% that it will. Resolution will be based on the Binance BTC/USDT price, specifically whether a 1-minute candle’s ‘High’ price exceeds $150,000. The second most probable outcome is that Bitcoin will hit $150k by December 31, 2026, with a 27.7% probability. Keep an eye on the Bitcoin price as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2028, to see if sustained momentum builds towards the $150,000 target.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The resolution sources and specific price criteria differ between platforms, creating potential discrepancies in outcomes.Hero tip: Consider the exchange-specific nature of Polymarket markets. If you believe Binance will lag other exchanges, Kalshi may offer a more favorable risk profile. Diversify your positions across platforms to mitigate exchange-specific risks.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolution is based on the 'High' price of a 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle reaching or exceeding $150,000. "This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title..."
  • Kalshi: Resolution is based on the price of Bitcoin being above $149,999.99 on a specified date, with no specific exchange mentioned. "If the price of Bitcoin is || Above/Below || 149999.99 by Apr 30, 2026 at 11:59pm ET, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

When will Bitcoin hit $150k

Kalshi

Bitcoin price is assessed across multiple time horizons extending from May 2026 through January 2027, with the market resolving to Yes if the price reaches or exceeds $150,000 within each specified period. Price determination uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), calculated by averaging values from any sixty-second period while excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of data points to reduce outlier effects. This pricing methodology is applied consistently across all resolution dates, with data sourced continuously 24/7 throughout each assessment period.

Opinion

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates trading activity from multiple prediction markets centered around the question of whether Bitcoin will reach $150,000. Currently, the combined volume across these markets exceeds $73,793,943, with $10,603 traded in the last 24 hours. We track the consensus view formed by traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, providing a comprehensive look at expectations for Bitcoin's price. The dashboard displays the probabilities and trading volume from each platform, giving you a clear picture of where the smart money is positioned in the Bitcoin $150K market.

Prediction market odds reflect a forward-looking assessment of probability, differing from spot price which reflects current value. In this market, the implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 is shaped by traders’ beliefs about future adoption, macroeconomic factors, and technological developments. These probabilities can be compared to traditional financial forecasts, but often incorporate a wider range of potential outcomes. A significant difference between market odds and spot price might suggest a disconnect between current sentiment and expectations for future price movement, offering potential insights for traders.

On Polymarket, this market currently favors Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027? at 33.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET? at 3.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies arise due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different class of traders than Kalshi, leading to differing risk assessments and price discovery. Furthermore, variations in trading fees and market-making incentives can also contribute to these divergences. These differences highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of information when evaluating the overall market sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Bitcoin’s price exceeds $150,000 on a major cryptocurrency exchange. The final price will be determined using a reputable source for cryptocurrency pricing data, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the outcome. Traders should monitor news and data sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential price movements and factors that could influence the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, particularly in the United States and Europe, could trigger substantial price swings. Broader macroeconomic events, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, also have the potential to influence Bitcoin’s price. Technological advancements, like improvements to the Bitcoin network or the emergence of competing cryptocurrencies, could also shift market sentiment. Finally, significant institutional adoption or large-scale purchases by corporations or governments could drive up demand and move this market closer to a 'yes' outcome.